this post was submitted on 02 Feb 2026
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What's even the point of the current US offensive on Iran? (lemmygrad.ml)
submitted 1 month ago by Conselheiro@lemmygrad.ml to c/asklemmygrad@lemmygrad.ml
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I'm usually a "Sane Trump Theory" supporter, but I see no outcome where the US achieves strategic gains in this one. Even with successful leadership assassination and significant damage to Iran's current nuclear capabilities, it'll just be kicking the can down the road and galvanising even more the Iranian people against the US. There's no way an outright occupation of Iran will happen.

But most NATO substrates have also designated the IRGC as a terrorist org, which I think would imply that the offensive is somehow strategically important. I don't like the whole depoliticising "distraction from Epstein" narrative, but I'm struggling to come up with alternatives here.

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[–] glimmer_twin@hexbear.net 12 points 1 month ago

Worst case scenario for the americans they cause Syrian Civil War 2.0. Collapse everything and let it burn. Maybe sell some weapons to both sides, good money in that. Either way an opposing regional force is off the table.

Best case they somehow get some puppet in charge and they have a pliant government on China’s flank.