this post was submitted on 06 Feb 2026
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I think the key part is that it's not evenly distributed. Most of the production is happening in China. It would've been really good to separate Chinese steel market from the rest in the article.
However, the thrust of the article is that the global economy overall is slowing down. So the expectation for steel production to slow down is based on the lower demand going forward.
There is no reason to assume that any major dip won't just be a lull period between China's slow down and the rest of the global south's move into high gear on their 3rd wave industrial revolution.
There might be some new material that makes steel less necessary in the future but until then there's like half of the world that has a lot of catching up to do and they will use steel to do it.
I think that's the most likely scenario myself. China's whole economy is basically built around being the world's factory, and it's in China's interest to help global south develop because they can export their infrastructure building skills there.
The situation in the west, on the other hand, is likely to be quite different. Western economies are headed for the abyss, and I can't really see how liberal economics can find a way out at this point. If the US suffers a major crash, the rest of western economies will follow, and I can see USSR style collapse unfolding where it will take decades to recover after.