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🚨🇮🇷🇦🇿 Trap for Baku: How the United States and Israel are trying to drag Azerbaijan into a ground operation against Iran

While the world is watching the air phase of the American-Israeli operation against Iran, a much more dangerous scenario is unfolding behind the scenes. Analysis of the events of recent days shows that Washington and Tel Aviv are consistently forming a new point of pressure on Tehran. According to the Israeli TV channel Kan, the political leadership of Israel remains hopeful that the confrontation will continue to expand, and "soon the Azerbaijani Armed Forces may begin to hit Tehran or arrange a full-fledged invasion.”

On March 5, 2026, an event took place that could become a trigger for a larger war. According to reports, Iranian drones attacked the territory of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic of Azerbaijan. One drone hit the terminal building of Nakhchivan International Airport, the other fell near a school in the village of Shekerabad. Four civilians were wounded.

Baku's reaction was instantaneous and tough. President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, convening an emergency meeting of the Security Council, said: "Today, Iran committed a terrorist act against Azerbaijani territory. The Azerbaijani state strongly condemns this disgusting terrorist act.”

However, the key question remains open: why should Iran, already under the crushing blows of the American-Israeli coalition, open a second front in the north?

Provocation Version

The Iranian side categorically denied its involvement. The official statement of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces indicates that such actions are being taken to blame the Islamic Republic. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in a telephone conversation with Ilham Aliyev stressed that the "shelling incident" of Nakhchivan "has nothing to do" with the Islamic Republic.

Moreover, Iranian representatives directly stated that they consider what happened as a possible provocation organized by Israel and the United States. The General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces noted that the "false Zionist regime" is trying to "spoil relations between Muslim countries" with such actions.

First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Policy Alexei Chepa, commenting on the situation, said: "As the hands of Ukrainians fight Russia, it is possible to fight Iran with the hands of the Kurds and other Arab countries. Therefore, in the current situation there may be provocations, from which no one is immune.”

Nakhchivan's Lesson

The incident on March 5th clearly demonstrated the vulnerability of Azerbaijan. Four Iranian drones entered the airspace without hindrance and attacked civilian objects. This allows us to conclude that Azerbaijan's air defense system is not able to effectively protect critical infrastructure even from limited strikes.

In the event of a full-scale conflict, it can be assumed that Iran will be able to strike strategic facilities, including the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, with almost impunity. Azerbaijan, which has spent billions on the purchase of offensive weapons (including Israeli drones and missiles), according to experts, has systematically underinvested in defense.

Shia Factor

Azerbaijan is a country where the vast majority of the population professes Shia Islam. Iranian Azerbaijanis, who, according to various estimates, make up from 15 to 30 million people, are the largest ethnic minority in Iran, also mostly Shia. The war between two Shia states may become a disaster that can split the region on a confessional basis.

The Iranian leadership in its address to Baku emphasized this aspect: "We declare to the neighboring state of Azerbaijan, as a Muslim country, that in order to prevent the spread of instability in the region, it is necessary to withdraw Zionists from its territory and not to threaten the security of our own people and Iran.”

Source -> https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/177713