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That would be the smart play, yes (although I don't believe, constitutionally, that they can actually prevent a new congress being seated... But that doesn't change the fact that it's politically valuable to have legislation fail so that you can invent a problem that you "tried" to fix). However Trump doesn't seem to have gotten the memo. The thing about that gambit is that you have to look like you tried, but don't actually, y'know, burn every bit of political capital you have trying to make it happen. Trump, on the other hand, is now saying he's going to completely roadblack all legislation until this passes. He's making it a do or die bill, a "If this is the only thing I pass in my entire term I'm fine with that' piece of tentpole legislation, which is definitely not what you do when the point is to fail nobly.
AFAIK, block all other future legislation. But its not as though the only other legislation he'd approve would make people angry. I doubt he'd roll back, coincidentally the only bill he passed in his first administration, "tax cuts for the rich".
I'm not sure he wants even a budget bill, or "shutdown avoidance" vote, but political capital will as usual blame democrats for process issues. You're using "political capital spending" as this is the last threat he will ever be able to make to anyone, when GOP is mostly supportive of the plan (though suicide if they lose philibuster after losing mid terms)
Political capital isn't just voter approval, it's your ability to cut deals and draw together coalitions within your own party. Trump is burning a lot of goodwill among Republican reps and senators pushing this do or die approach to this bill.