this post was submitted on 19 Mar 2026
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Geopolitics

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The far greater significance lies in the political sphere. With Larijani gone, a relatively moderate figure accustomed to dealing with the West — and one who wielded significant influence within the system — is eliminated. This makes any potential off-ramp or diplomatic settlement of the war vastly more difficult.

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By removing figures like Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — with his stated opposition to the bomb — and pragmatists like Ali Larijani, accustomed to dealing with the world, the U.S. and Israel are paving the way for the most extreme hardline factions to fill the void. A reckless strategy if there ever was one, guaranteeing perpetual conflict in the Middle East.

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My guess is that Trump personally has neither a good understanding of the political situation in Iran nor a contingency plan for what to do if this war isn't won quickly, but Netanyahu presumably does have both and Israel can't "chicken out" and leave the region the way that many people expect the US to. Thus while I remain pessimistic about the possibility of victory through air power, I presume that Israel does have some plan that isn't clearly a bad idea.