While that is absolutely the case, the problem they have here is that they don't control escalatory dominance. Typically, the US can dial things up or down as convenient, and if things get too spicy they can leave without any consequence. But here, Iran controls a choke point of the global economy, and leaving would have disastrous geopolitical consequences for the US. If they're forced to abandon all their vassals in the Gulf, then their image as a world power collapses overnight. How can Europe, occupied Korea, or Japan credibly think that the US will defend them at that point?

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 7 points 8 hours ago (1 children)

How can Europe, occupied Korea, or Japan credibly think that the US will defend them at that point?

It's disturbing if they currently think US will defend them, when all defenses are moved to Israel today, and Trump shifts from "not our problem, we should leave" and "permanent global economy destruction", and delaying "permanent global destruction" while Israel pursues it anyway. Furthermore, pursuing the Israel genocide expansion plan makes US angry at low enthusiasm level of its colonies to join, and promises "bad future" for its allies.

If they’re forced to abandon all their vassals in the Gulf, then their image as a world power collapses overnight.

That is most likely outcome. Of the $200B funding request bill, as much as $50B is expected as earmark to allies reparations other than Israel. Unclear that congress will go along with any funds for them.

[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 6 points 6 hours ago

Right, I really can't see how the US can win this war or even exit it with any sort of dignity. It's a massive geopolitical humiliation.

[–] Maeve@kbin.earth 5 points 8 hours ago (1 children)

If they're forced to abandon all their vassals in the Gulf, then their image as a world power collapses overnight.

As opposed to staying and their image being more like the loooooong, slow decomposition of an embalmed corpse? Like it's still going to happen, it's just taking too 🤬 long?

[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 7 points 6 hours ago (1 children)

There are no good choices left for the empire here.

[–] Maeve@kbin.earth 5 points 6 hours ago (2 children)

Painful as it may be for underdeveloped egos, GTFO NOW and start making reparations seems the best option, but I'm an internet rando, so there's that

[–] mirshafie@europe.pub 1 points 53 minutes ago

I don't think a path for deescalation exists anymore. JD Vance could maybe have taken the reigns by referring to Trump's ill health, promised to send more competent negotiators who could meet Iran in good faith, and essentially dropped Israel to save America (or at least give it a few more good years).

But that's a very tall order, and he just went out to claim Iran is designing nuclear suicide vests, so I guess he watched Wag the Dog and took some inspiration.

[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 8 points 5 hours ago (1 children)

realistically that is the best option left, but the humiliation would be too much too swallow

[–] Maeve@kbin.earth 3 points 5 hours ago (1 children)

Well, even the best developed egos don't often like humble pie. And I don't think Trump's handlers really care much about results, as long as they're making money. I imagine they imagine money makes humble pie taste really good, until they're the pie filling.

[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 3 points 5 hours ago (1 children)

It's always possible that these people will find ways to profit from the crisis, and they genuinely don't care even if the US geopolitical position collapses, and US economy crashes.

[–] Maeve@kbin.earth 3 points 5 hours ago

That's my current (very imperfect) best guess.