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this post was submitted on 03 Sep 2023
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Well hey - atleast I provided some statistics to back me up. That's not the case with the people refuting those stats.
I honestly can't tell if that's a passive-aggressive swipe at me or not; but just in case it was: stats mean very little w/o context. I believe the quote was "Lies, damned lies, and statistics". I simply pointed out a few errors with the foundation of these "statistics". I didn't need to quote my own statistics because, as I was pointing out, this is a completely apples to oranges comparison. The AV companies want at the same time to preach about how many miles they go w/o accident while comparing themselves to an average they know doesn't match their own circumstances. Basically they are taking their best case scenario and comparing it against average/worst case scenario stats.
I'd give more weight to the stats if they where completely transparent, worked with a neutral 3rd party, and gave them access to all their video/data/etc to generate (at the very least) proper stats relative to their environment. Sure, I'll way easier believe waymo/cruises' numbers over those by tesla; but I still take it with a grain of salt. Because again, they have a HUGE incentive to tweak their numbers to put themselves in the very best light.
No, I see your point, and I agree. These companies are almost guaranteed to cherry-pick those stats, so only a fool would take that as hard evidence. However, I don't think these stats flat-out lie either. If they show a self-driving car is three times less prone to accidents, I doubt the truth is that humans, in fact, are twice as good. I believe it's safe to assume that these stats at least point us in the right direction, and that seems to correlate with the little personal experience I have as well. If these systems really sucked as much as the most hardcore AV-skeptics make it seem, I doubt we'd be seeing any of these in use on public roads because the issues would be apparent.
However, the point I'm trying to highlight here is that I make a claim about AV-safety, and I then provide some stats to back me up. People then come telling me that's nonsense and list a bunch of personal reasons why they feel so but provide nothing concrete evidence except maybe links to articles about individual accidents. That's just not the kind of data that's going to change my mind.