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this post was submitted on 30 Sep 2023
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"Getting hold of" can be interpreted broadly. While it’s not unrealistic that the next coalition might be conservative CxU + libertarian FDP + nazi AfD, it’s also very likely that the AfD gets banned until the next election, the responsible organization already has an eye on them. And a government with the AfD would be catastrophic (obviously), but it wouldn’t equal the creation the fourth reich. They would need a 2/3 majority to change/abolish constitutional laws and to change art. 1-20, which ensure human rights and such stuff, they would first need to change/abolish art. 79, which not even CxU and FDP would support. And here’s the fun part: if the AfD actually planned to do that, even without outright stating it, it would be enough to get them banned. The protecting mechanisms are there, the AfD can’t do anything about it and the other parties with coalition potential, even CxU and FDP, wouldn’t pave the way that far for another dictatorship.
So while it’s grim that a Nazi party is that popular, the damage they can possibly do is definitely below 1933.
On the other hand, should they gain 33% of seats, they can block all changes to the constitution. Should they occupy enough seats in the Bundesrat, they can block statewide policies. They do not need to be in power, to have a lasting impact on the German democracy. Given the current trend and that a not functional government leads to even more votes for the far right, it still looks bleak.
Agreed
It's something, I'll take it. I suppose I shouldn't underestimate Germany's fondness for legal systems and bureaucracy, even if I'm sad cultural change efforts haven't been as successful as I had hoped.