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this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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For context: I'm Estonian. Our nation has a great deal of history with Russian imperialism, under both tsarist and soviet rules. Even Putin has threatened us before. So clearly I'm not a supporter of the Russian regime or their imperialistic ambitions. However, I'm going to present an unpopular opinion.
The balkanization of Russia, if it were to happen, would not be beneficial in the long run. At least not for the people at large.
Yes, the big western cities would be a lot more liberal and open to democracy than the vast countryside. However, we need to consider the fact that different Russian oblasts have VAST differences in economic power. The big cities will thrive on their own, sure, but their tax money would then no longer be used to help people in the more remote regions. Not that these regions are getting a lot of attention now, but at least under a different regime for the current Russian nation as it is, it'd be possible to improve infrastructure, education, industry, etc. for towns in remote oblasts.
And leaving those people farther and farther behind, will cause new unrests. And definitely there would be military dictatorships who promise better lives, etc.
Therefore, a division of Russia into small states might actually cause more issues in the long run. Not that I'm a fan of it staying intact either.
It's a choice between two evils of unknown magnitude, the only good thing is that none of us are the ones making that choice so we don't have to live with it on our consciences.
It might cause more issues in those states but wouldn't each of them be weaker? I don't know how to fix Russia, but if it can't be fixed I'd rather they not be strong enough to attack other countries.
Depends on whether they'll manage to get control of the nukes. They're likely stashed all around the nation, but the question is how difficult it would be to gain launch capability, since the existing infrastructure would likely not be usable by local militaries.
We're also talking about the potential suffering of millions of people.
Chances are decent that the nukes don't work any more, so that may not be a threat at all.
I'm still reluctant to put that hypothesis to the test, though, for obvious reasons…
I doubt the tritium is being reliably refilled, but a second stage fizzle is still a disaster, and I'm sure at least some of them can still create a sizable explosion
Right you are. I also wonder whether the rockets all still work, but as you say, at least some of them probably still do.
If the local economies fail to sustain and source advanced material and components needed for the infrastructure, it might end up not being a big problem.
I imagine the nations would end up falling under the control of other nations, such as China, who does not desire nuclear war.
But yes, it would very much still be a humanitarian nightmare for those places.
I doubt anyone would seriously want to fire a nuke even if the country fell into a civil war.
It's more of a saying or sentiment so to speak - that the system could be nuked and people would perhaps arguably be better off to reform from scratch, with the knowledge of hindsight rather than with the current difficulties.