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MEGATHREAD: whatever the hell is going on in Russia right now (beehaw.org)

submitted 1 year ago by alyaza@beehaw.org to c/news@beehaw.org

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please post any subsequent updates here unless they're huge happenings. i just woke up and half our news front page is updates which is nice but also A Lot and most of these don't have to be their own thread

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[-] MarvinKMooney@kbin.social 6 points 1 year ago

What are the chances this will impact the war in Ukraine in a positive way for Ukraine? Will we possibly see an end to the war soon?

[-] Anomandaris@kbin.social 6 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

I believe it ensures a much much sooner end, yes, but exactly when depends on who wins.

If Putin wins his authority will be significantly weakened, his army will be significantly weakened, and it's likely he'd have to pull more of them away to ensure his leadership and security even after Wagner is defeated.

If Wagner wins the army will likely be immediately recalled out of Ukraine, they will want to confirm the army's submission to new rule and ensure no counter coup attempts, but also it would be very easy to blame Putin for everything and win popularity with the Russian people by bringing back soldiers who would likely have died pointlessly.

Crimea, however, may be a point of contention, depending on the opinions of the winners.

[-] wsf@kbin.social 4 points 1 year ago

100% true. Putin will survive and will be forced to come to the negotiating table. The war in Ukraine will be over in a couple of months.

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this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023

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