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this post was submitted on 16 Oct 2023
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Anyone who thinks China will be pleased for a more chaotic global situation doesn't really understand the Chinese strategic situation.
China borders 14 countries. Four of those states are nuclear-armed: India, North Korea, Pakistan and Russia. Of those four, only Russia and North Korea are its allies (but it remains to be seen how loyal they are, considering their subordinate status.) Three of the four, Pakistan, Russia and North Korea are one crisis away from total collapse, a nuclear nightmare scenario for China.
China shares a border with Afghanistan and Pakistan, both hotbeds for extremist activity and both teetering on the edge of chaos themselves. Further chaos in the Middle East makes this situation less predictable for China.
Russia's war in Ukraine has turned Kazakhstan and many other Central Asian powers towards the West just as China was making big inroads into those countries.
China needs the West to be stable because China does not have the consumer base to sustain its own economy, and finding new markets has been borderline impossible.
If you want to know who is responsible for the chaos, look to who it benefits: Vladimir Putin, who is losing his disastrous war in Ukraine and desperately needs the West to reduce its support; Iran who are facing unprecedented social unrest with no sign of abatement; and Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been stoking the flames of this conflagration with the desperation of a man whose only path away from prison and disgrace is a "justified" war that might get his next election over the line.
Agreed on most points. I'm not sure how a war in Israel helps Putin in Ukraine though. If you assume support for Israel means less support for Ukraine then sure, but I don't think it's that black and white. If there's one thing Americans love to spend money on it's war and there is plenty of cash to go around.
Personally I'd rather give all the aid Ukraine needs and let Israel sort out their own business. The two situations aren't really comparable both in terms of the actors involved or the reasons the two conflicts began. Putin and Hamas do both represent evil organizations but if I had to pick which one to deal with I'd pick Putin every time. That's partly for personal reasons but I also think it would do more good for the world as a whole.
Very true. The US could sustain full operations in both theaters without breaking a sweat. Both of those theaters are tiny compared to the US military industrial complex and it's force projection.
It's not spending, it is investing.
Regards, The Military Industrial Complex
Israel has been a fairly large supporter of Ukraine in terms of equipment and ammunition and such. before this happened, I remembered reading something about them helping build their own Iron Dome system, for example. (though, I'm not sure how effective such a system would by. Israel has about 8 thousand square miles to it... Ukraine a couple hundred thousand.)
Also, if you assume war materials are finite resources... Israel is going to be less likely to share if they have an active war on their own home turf.
Can I ask where you read this? That seems blatantly untrue.
https://kyivindependent.com/on-support-for-ukraine-israel-performs-precarious-balancing-act-between-security-interests/
Isreal's lack of overt support to Ukraine has been a ongoing issiue from early on of the 2022 invasion. Western nations were also asking Isreal to help and they still refused.
Well the Isrealis are almost out of certain types of ammo and needed the Americans to drop them literal tons to keep the fighting going.
https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-state-department-39b9e7f15334ff756f022704f9516867
The Americans are the ones supplying both Ukraine and Isreal, Isreal had the chance to help supply Ukraine before but that chance is out the window now.
Frankly might not be a bad idea for China to solidify a partnership with the West short term, to maintain that stability. A strong bulwark alliance like that would anchor the world.
I don't think they can afford the lose face like that, by doing a complete 180 and making nice with the west. It would completely undermine everything Xi Jinping has been building for over a decade. His grasp on that power is somewhat tenuous already, and doing a complete about face would make him seem weak and indecisive and that's when the vultures would strike.