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My Thinkpad T480s randomly dies with Arch Linux
(sh.itjust.works)
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Debian has a program in the battery-stats package that logs battery at a (by default) 30 second interval. That has a pretty graphing program too. I dunno if Arch packages that, but if not, not hard to roll your own.
That'll get you a capacity within ten seconds of the next shutdown. If you save that log, repeat it running until it dies a couple times, you can probably tell if it's consistently at the same capacity that it goes down.