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this post was submitted on 09 Nov 2023
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This is one part of why it is even possible for him to lose. States that managed to eek out an extra brain cell last time may not this time. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Georgia, New Mexico, and Arizona could be in play for anyone with a heart beat that is not Joe Biden.
There had better be a strong Democrat primary in 2024. If the party capitulates to Biden, the base is going to heave a depressed sigh and probably stay home. The loud people online who swear Americans are too afraid not to vote for him are a tiny vocal faction. 2016 should have proven that. Many more people would rather watch it burn than continue the farce that got us here.
Pro-Tip - Nobody serious will primary him.
The history of primarying a sitting President is that if you do the damage, you won't win, but the President will fail in the General.
If Biden foregoes a run (he won't) and named an heir, we'd be in a better place than described. But it cannot look like Hillary Clinton on the way to a coronation. We lost that one.
Yup, that's what I'm aftraid they're setting up for '28 and Harris - "Her Turn 2.0".
How many times has that happened?
Once with Carter?
And wasn't that the moderate establishment intentionally kneecapping his second term because if a Republican won they could say it was because Carter was too progressive and the Dem party needed to be more conservative? But if Carter got a second term, progressives would keep winning primaries?
I can't think of another time an incumbent Dem president was primaried.
But I bet the next time it happens is after the first term of a progressive president. Suddenly party leadership will decide we deserve a say in their private event where they don't have to respect the results.
Johnson was primaried, did poorly in VT and withdrew his nomination. Nominee lost to Nixon.
Ford was primaried, lost to Carter.
Carter was primaried, lost to Reagan.
H.W. Bush was primaried, lost to Clinton, but was also fighting Perot.
So basically every time it's happened in recent times.
Guess there was few more.
This article should help you:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/joe-biden-2024-primary_n_6503225de4b0800d579d8f64
Tldr:
Saying primary challengers make incumbents lose is like saying getting a warning for speeding makes someone more likely to get a speeding ticket
Driving over the speed limit makes both more likely.
So in addition to my point about Carter, and this shouldn't need to be said, but if a president is so bad that they have to fight a tough primary as an incumbent, they're probably not going to win their general.
An easy fix is to normalize a primary. Strong incumbents get a second go, and we're not running an incumbent no one likes in the general if they lose
I think there were legit weaknesses in Johnson, Ford, and Carter.
Johnson because of Vietnam of course. Ford because he pardoned Nixon, and Carter due to the hostage crisis.
Bush was more hurt by Perot than the primary. Buchanan got all pissy over the "read my lips, no new taxes" thing.
Biden is almost guaranteed to be the Democrat nominee. They aren't going to do a serious campaign against their own incumbent.
The 2024 election is going to be Biden vs Trump unless one of them dies or goes to jail.
I do worry for 2024 because I can really tell that the Democratic party will still lean hard on Biden, regardless. I mean, they leaned on Hilary Clinton very hard even though there were actually better and more suited candidates running. Right now, I'm only hearing crickets as to what the Democrats can prop up as running candidates. This is really worrying, in an election that should be a given, because Republicans are busy eating at eachother. That should be taking advantage of, not resting on your laurels in hopes it guarantees you another term.