Spot on analysis. The convenience of staying must be beat out by the new tool. I remember when myspace was killed when facebook came. The annoyance of everything being customized was beat by facebooks neatness. Finally all my relatives could find the buttons. Apollo was soooo convenient on reddit. I'm hoping he'll port it to the fediverse, that would be the killer app for me.

I'm not sure what happened with WhatsApp, but I think the key is if the platform still mostly works as intended people will stay. I follow some artists on Twitter and my feed is mostly their content. I don't see the trash from other parts unless I specifically go looking for it or on rare occasions. So for the most part twitter still functions the same for me and the artists I follow. Now, if say my feed was filled with bigots complaining or people harassing the artists I follow cause they draw NSFW lesbian art or the site was SO filled with bigots that it ruined your reputation just by being there then yeah I'd leave. We are approaching this point but I don't think we are in a Voat or Ruqqus like situation. When I look at instances of games or social media platforms having a mass exodus, that seems to be the common theme, making a change that directly interferes with its core function.