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confused by your comment because my 401k contributions go directly towards index funds. are you talking specifically about target date funds, or something else?
It's laughably obviously that this individual has zero experience with individual retirement accounts and is, in fact, making up this alleged analysis. There is no way they even have access to such data.
Target year funds will almost always underperform SPY, by design. They are broad market funds which taper into bonds over time. Either way, I have never seen a 401k which doesn't have many, many index tracking options.
The index fund options in many 401Ks underperform - this is just across the average, not all 401ks. Some 401Ks have general stock market index funds, some only offer index funds in specific sectors or target metrics.
The analysis I ran started with the question: 'given the average 401k, compare returns including average match against general stock market index funds'.
My assumption going in was that 401Ks would return better results because of the employer match, but that's not the case on average. The average investor would have significantly more money if they'd just invested in 'market' index funds, and it wasn't even close.
That being said, 401Ks or general ETF funds are still risky and inferior when compared to pensions and social security.
Holy shit you have no idea what you’re talking about.