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this post was submitted on 11 Jan 2024
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That's a very good point I've only just really let sink in. Trump not passing go and going directly to jail will mean chaos and collateral damage, perhaps globally. Things have to be done delicately for all our sakes unfortunately.
You don't think that the current approach isn't causing chaos? He literally forged documents to send imposters into the electoral college vote. His supporters stormed the capitol - beating and killing security personnel and in one case being shot dead by special services. I don't think that jailing Trump will make these issues go away as they're too ingrained already, but I do think a harder stance needs to be taken before there's no more ground to stand on.
I do. He needs to go to jail eventually, or at least be made ineligible to run for office, or both. But if law enforcement locked him up tomorrow I think that could be immediately destabilizing of American society and the ensuing riots could cause massive loss of life and destruction, if not all out civil war, frankly. The cult of Trump is not insignificant. I live in New Zealand, and even here I encounter Trump pariahs all the time. We are living in very interesting times.
The asymmetry here is the most frustrating thing, but building things has always been harder than tearing them down. Dealing with Trump and the cult surrounding him, and the phenomena that actually made him possible in the first place (social media and the outrage and misinformation economy that has infected news media and the entire information space), is probably going to be the project that defines this decade, and that all other projects depend on for their success (like dealing with climate change). So it's one that if we fail, could set us back to the early 1900s or worse in terms of global societal cohesion. I don't think I'm being hyperbolic when I say this.
I see a lot of people (who are not Americans) speculating on the prospect of an American Civil War Part II, but I live here and I'm not seeing it. That's what Jan 6th was supposed to be, and it didn't work. The people that like him are like him- loudmouthed blowhards with no critical thinking skills. There will be no civil war. Our democracy is broken and our politics are a joke, but there's not going to be full out war over this. We eat too well.
I hope you're right. The fact all the polling data puts Trump at an almost 50% chance of being re-elected if allowed to run is not encouraging, and it's almost like the closer we get to locking him up (or out), the more popular he becomes.
His followers lack critical thinking skills. But so does the overwhelming majority of the population. That was really my point.