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Biden will not be replaced, the only thing that can prevent the sitting President from running again is the President themselves having 2nd thoughts. See Johnson, 1968.
As long as Biden wants to run, he's the nominee.
That might change if he or Trump has a medical event that removes them, or if a conviction throws Trump in prison.
We won't really know until the Republican convention in July. If nothing blocks Trump from the nomination, Biden is running.
Can you imagine if Trump got put in jail and then Biden dropped dead of a heart attack. It would be an absolute clusterfuck of an election, and yet possibly better than what we're facing right now. Only downside is the potential for a Republican to possibly win in that case, but on the upside it would be hard for the Democrats to come up with a worse candidate than Biden.
There was a really good novel exploring scenarios like that. It was called "The People's Choice" by Jeff Greenfield of all people.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_People%27s_Choice_(novel)
Gag was this... Election goes off without a hitch, candidate gets 270+ EC votes, but dies BEFORE the EC count is certified.
So... it just goes to the VP, right? Nope. The VP candidate is not actually VP yet and can't step in.
Great read if you're in to politics and stuff.