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this post was submitted on 14 Feb 2024
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politics
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Special elections don't necessarily have any clear trend in and of themselves. The larger trend, and where this is significant, is that elections that occur within a presidential term tend to swing quite hard to the opposite party of that President. This is the main reason why the Republicans currently lead the House, but this effect has been much much smaller than it usually is, and so they have an exceedingly slim majority.
It generally bodes very well for Biden in 2024, because unlike polls, this is a test of the exact demographic, moderately wealthy suburbanites that value boring stability above all else, that he needs to do well with in order to win.