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this post was submitted on 22 Mar 2024
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GenZedong
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Sad...always tragic when something that had so much work put into it gets destroyed...but it was to be expected. This is the Find Out part of FAFO. On the bright side, the dam still stands, unless the Ukrainians decide that without the power station it is of no use to them anymore and they may as well try and score some propaganda points with another Kakhovka-like false flag.
Taking a broader view and leaving aside emotions though, i have to say this whole conflict has been a master class in escalation management from the Russian side. They have ratcheted up the pressure at exactly the pace that has suited them, even when their own side was calling to take the gloves off much earlier. At this point these sorts of strikes have a far greater impact than had they happened a year or two ago.
And far from being a mere kneejerk response to certain recent provocations from the Ukrainian side i think that what we are seeing now was meticulously planned way in advance as part of the broader overall strategy of attrition. It's no coincidence that just as Ukraine is weaker and more exhausted than it has ever been Russia is ramping up pressure all across the front... and now we see these strikes in the deep rear.
It would make sense for Russia to start an offensive after this. They seem to have hit multiple important energy plants.
Supposedly they'll go on the offense in the summer, but who knows. Their biggest objective is to not overextend in any way, which is fair when you consider they are fighting the whole of NATO. And winning.
That would make sense, but then again i have found it is difficult to predict what Russia will do next in this conflict. Unlike the Ukrainians and the collective West who are extremely predictable the Russians often surprise me. Which indicates that they are playing the deception game well, because if i could predict their actions then so could their enemies. As usual, we'll just have to wait and see...