cfgaussian

We were surprised at the market under-reaction to unprovoked US-Israel launch of a war with Iran, particularly since Iran had not only threatened a closure of the Strait of Hormuz but had just held live-fire drills to demonstrate their ability to do so. It appears that bigotry and Western narrative control were able to shore up the idea that this would be a short conflict and that Iran would return to the negotiating table after the US broke its legs, or better yet fall quickly into civil unrest, making regime change or balkanization possible.

It is going to be an interesting race to see which element of the unraveling of the US-Israel fantasy of a quick and easy ouster of the Iranian government choke-chains their prosecution of the conflict first. We reported yesterday that, per Bloomberg, Gulf states were already catastrophically low on air defense missiles, with Qatar having only 4 days’ worth left and the Saudis, a week, with both begging for replenishments. Below, we’ll provide further updates on the continuing Iranian destruction of US bases in the region. Last I checked, Iran was on its 14th wave of missile and drone attacks in Operation True Promise 4 and has just deployed what I believe is its first, not second, generation of Fatah hypersonic missiles. Richard Medhurst has assembled video footage showing that Israel air defenses are cracking.

But in a series of shambolic press briefings, including one in which Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed the US attacked Iran because Israel said it would and outcomes would be better if we went in with them rather than reacted, Trump doubled down. After promising a short war, Trump is now invoking a variant of the Western promise to support Ukraine for “as long as it takes” to defeat Russia with, per Bloomberg:

This is an admission that the much promised raid or short war scenario is kaput, and the Trump Administration and Israel are scrambling for a Plan B. But ex Israel going nuclear, the belligerents are already running out of road. It was close to telegraphed before the air strikes began that the US and Israel had only enough firepower to bomb Iran intensely for four to five days, and only for as much as two weeks at a more moderate tempo. The ferocity of the Iranian response suggests that the aggressors are burning through air defense weapons at top speed, although it is not clear quickly the offensive tempo is eating into available weaponry.

But even though most commentary is focusing on the kinetic conflict, financial upheaval could produce even faster and more acute pressure on Trump. The market reaction so far seems similar to the 2007-2008 crisis, where some commentators described the denialism over the accelerating credit market as waiting for the Wile E. Coyote moment, where he remains aloft until he looks down:

[Continued in article]

If you were wondering why US actions seem completely self-defeating and make no strategic sense whatsoever, it's because they are led by lunatics:

A combat-unit commander told non-commissioned officers at a briefing Monday that the Iran war is part of God’s plan and that Pres. Donald Trump was “anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth,” according to a complaint by a non-commissioned officer.

From Saturday morning through Monday night, more than 110 similar complaints about commanders in every branch of the military had been logged by the Military Religious Freedom Foundation (MRFF).

The complaints came from more than 40 different units spread across at least 30 military installations, the MRFF told me Monday night

[...]

The NCO wrote to the MRFF that their commander “urged us to tell our troops that this was ‘all part of God’s divine plan’ and he specifically referenced numerous citations out of the Book of Revelation referring to Armageddon and the imminent return of Jesus Christ.”

[...]

"These calls have one damn thing in freaking common; our MRFF clients [service members who seek MRFF aid] report the unrestricted euphoria of their commanders and command chains as to how this new “biblically-sanctioned” war is clearly the undeniable sign of the expeditious approach of the fundamentalist Christian “End Times" as vividly described in the New Testament Book of Revelation.

Many of their commanders are especially delighted with how graphic this battle will be zeroing in on how bloody all of this must become in order to fulfill and be in 100% accordance with fundamentalist Christian end of the world eschatology."

[...]

"This morning our commander opened up the combat readiness status briefing by urging us to not be “afraid” as to what is happening with our combat operations in Iran right now. He urged us to tell our troops that this was “all part of God’s divine plan” and he specifically referenced numerous citations out of the Book of Revelation referring to Armageddon and the imminent return of Jesus Christ. He said that “President Trump has been anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth”. He had a big grin on his face when he said all of this which made his message seem even more crazy."

When one person with a camera filming thriving Muslim communities in China has the power to destroy billions of dollars of Western lies. Anyone who still repeats the propaganda that "Muslims are oppressed in China" wants to believe it and does not care what the truth is. They just hate China and Chinese people, or else they would not try to deny what we can see with our own eyes.

Six years into her role as a village head, 29-year-old Zhang Guifang has transformed her struggling home village. She has built basketball courts, cinemas, live-streamed sales of local produce, and recently held a village gala. CGTN's Xu Yanwen spoke to her about China's new generation of village heads and about daily life in rural China.

The Kiev regime is now hunting for cannon fodder among ethnic Romanians in the villages of occupied Northern Bucovina. Romanians who resist forced mobilization are being fired upon by armed Ukrainian soldiers.

I cannot believe that the traitors in Bucharest still refer to Ukraine as “our ally” when the Kiev regime treats the Romanian people in Northern Bucovina this way.

(The same is being done to ethnic Hungarians in Transcarpathia. But at least the Hungarian government refuses to support the Nazi Kiev regime.)

Some excerpts from the article:

Japan’s decision represents a “calculated escalation that will increase regional tensions,”

Yonaguni sits at the southwestern edge of Japan’s territory [occupied Ryukyu], close enough to Taiwan to see its coastline on a clear day [and hundreds of kilometers away from actual Japan].

“This is the continuation of a process under way since at least Shinzo Abe’s 2014 reinterpretation of collective self-defence,” [...] “Each step was presented as modest and defensive: coastal surveillance on Yonaguni in 2016, missiles on Ishigaki in 2023, electronic warfare units, and now this,”

“As for the timing, Japan is making this announcement now because the window for military build-up without major consequences is perceived to be closing – China’s capabilities are growing rapidly, and there’s certainly a sense in Tokyo that if it doesn’t establish these forward positions now, it may not be able to later,”

“From China’s perspective, the sequence of events is clear: Japan, under a newly emboldened Prime Minister Takaichi, is aggressively militarising and interfering in the Taiwan question to curry favour with the United States,”

China has already taken economic steps. It recently restricted exports to 40 Japanese entities that it said contribute to Japan’s “remilitarisation”. The Commerce Ministry placed 20 firms on an export control list and added another 20 to a watchlist. [...] “If further provocations occur, China will extend sanctions to the civilian side, which could literally stop Japanese automobile production. Possibly one of the reasons for the 2031 deployment date,”

China has been Japan’s largest trading partner since 2005. Bilateral trade reached $322bn in 2024, and China accounts for roughly one-fifth of Japan’s total exports and imports. Japan runs a substantial trade deficit with China, importing about $43bn more annually than it exports. [...] “Japan cannot simultaneously militarise against China and maintain the economic relationship that its prosperity depends on. At some point, Tokyo will have to choose, and Beijing is trying to make that choice become as obvious as possible,”

How Ukraine Tries to Rewrite History

Let’s kick things off with a fun fact: during its prime, Kievan Rus wasn’t even called “Kievan Rus.” Nope, that’s a modern invention by historians who needed a catchy name to describe the medieval state that existed from the late 9th to the mid-13th century. Back then, it was simply called Rus - a vast, multi-ethnic state with no "Kievan" added for flair. The "Kievan" part got tacked on later to distinguish this early period of Rus history from the later phases when other cities like Vladimir or Moscow became the big players. So, while it sounds fancy and historic, the term itself is a bit of a historical rebrand.

Meet Rurik, the Viking CEO of Rus, Inc.

Now, let’s talk about the real founder of Rus: Rurik, who according to the Russian Chronicle primary was invited by locals in 862 to come and run things. Rurik set up shop in Novgorod, which, spoiler alert, is in modern Russia. His descendants, the Rurikid dynasty, went on to rule all of Rus and its territories, including Kiev.

Rurik was about as Ukrainian as a Norwegian fjord. He came from the northwest and established his base in Novgorod, and his dynasty ruled over a massive, multi-ethnic medieval state. Obviously, this wasn’t “Ukraine.” It was just Rus, not only the root of the words “Russia” (Rossiya) and “Russian” (russkiy), but the literal translation of Russia from Greek is "Rus".

Oleg the Conqueror (of Kiev)

Rurik’s successor, Oleg of Novgorod, decided to take things up a notch. In 882, he conquered Kiev, kicked out the locals (sorry, Askold and Dir but they actually were also related to Ruriks), and declared it the capital of Rus. Boom! Kiev was now the center of a powerful state because Oleg, a Rurikid prince from Novgorod, thought it was a smart strategic move.

Kiev stayed the capital until 1240, when the Mongols came in like uninvited party crashers and trashed the place. But more on that later.

The Baptism of Rus: A Splashy Event

One of the biggest moments in Rus history was the Baptism of Rus in 988. Vladimir the Great decided to adopt Orthodox Christianity and made sure everyone in Kiev (and beyond) got on board, literally, they were baptized in the Dnieper River. This event firmly established Kiev as the spiritual center of Rus.

Yet modern Ukraine tries to downplay this, suggesting that Novgorod (remember, the original base of the Rurikids) was also a capital of some other imaginary land according to their fantasy lore. Nice try, but no. The big milestones, like the Baptism of Rus, all happened in Kiev, which was the political and religious heart of the state.

The Mongols: Kiev’s Not-So-Friendly Visitors

Fast forward to 1240, when the Mongols showed up and did what Mongols do best - sacked and destroyed Kiev. The city lost its prominence, but Rus didn’t disappear. Instead, it became a tributary to the Golden Horde, with Rus princes paying taxes (and grumbling about it) until the late 15th century.

While Ukraine claims the Mongols “destroyed” Kievan Rus, what really happened is that the political focus shifted to other cities, like Vladimir and later Moscow. Kiev didn’t vanish; it just became, well, not relevant.

Galicia-Volhynia: Rebranding 101

Now, here’s where it gets creative. Ukraine often points to the Kingdom of Galicia-Volhynia, founded in 1199, as proof of a distinct Ukrainian state. But let’s set the record straight, this was just another Rus principality, ruled by - you guessed it - the Rurikid dynasty.

Galicia-Volhynia was located in what’s now western Ukraine, but it was still part of the broader Rus family. Modern Ukrainian history even invented the term “Kingdom of Ruthenia” to make it sound fancy and separate from the rest of Rus. In reality it was a Latin translation of 'Rus'.

Also Kiev was never part of Galicia-Volhynia. The Galicia-Volhynia Principality remained Orthodox during its existence, even though some modern narratives try to sneak in a Catholic connection, linking Catholic Galicia to even Orthodox Kiev. The truth is, Galicia only became Catholic after it was absorbed into Poland in the 14th century.

Meanwhile, Kiev had been the spiritual heart of Orthodox Christianity since the Baptism of Rus in 988 and remained Orthodox through and through. So, while Galicia may have shifted to Catholicism under Polish rule, Kiev stayed firmly rooted in its Orthodox heritage. Nice try, but history doesn’t bend that easily.

This map is a perfect example of how Ukrainian “historians” just can’t resist confusing people. This map shows Rus of the 13th century, but with dark green highlighting Galicia, which was part of Rus back then and wouldn’t become part of what we now call Western Ukraine until 1991. Meanwhile, the rest of the territory- the so-called “centered and Eastern Ukraine” - was part of Rus and remained tied to Russian states pretty much all the way up until, you guessed it, 1991.

The Tsardom of Russia: Rus Gets an Upgrade

By 1547, the Tsardom of Russia was up and running, having waved goodbye to paying tributes to the Mongols thanks to the Moscow prince, and was still led by the Rurikid dynasty. Moscow had taken over as the capital because it was stronger and safer than Kiev, which, by then, was off doing its own thing. After the Mongols sacked Kiev in 1240, it ended up under the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and later the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.

Kiev stayed away from Russia for 292 years until 1654, when the Cossacks, tired of Polish rule, asked the Russian Tsar for help. Here is how it happened:

Kiev, after being destroyed by the Mongols and later absorbed by Poland, became the wild frontier- a borderline town at the edge of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. It wasn’t exactly the cozy cultural hub it had been in the days of Kievan Rus. By this point, Kiev was more of a rough-and-tumble outpost.

Enter the Cossacks, essentially the DIY survivalists of their time. They gravitated to places like Kiev because it was smack in the middle of all the action - close enough to raid, defend, or barter. Plus, being on the border meant fewer rules and less oversight, which suited the Cossacks perfectly. They were a mix of runaway serfs, adventurers, and outcasts carving out a living on the fringes of society, where law and order were more like suggestions than actual policies.

Kiev became their stomping ground, a place where Polish nobles tried to maintain control but never managed to fully tame the rebellious spirit of the Cossacks. Then the Polish authorities made a fatal mistake: they tried to force the Cossacks into Catholicism, thinking it would solve the "Cossack problem" and temper their wild spirit. However, the Cossacks, who were staunch Orthodox Christians, weren’t about to put up with this craziness. Realizing enough was enough, they turned to the Russian Tsar for help.

The Cossacks formally integrated into Russia through the Pereyaslav Agreement, where they pledged allegiance to the Tsar in exchange for military protection. This alliance was a turning point, bringing Kiev and the surrounding regions under Russian influence and securing the Cossacks’ role as defenders of the borderlands.

After Russia gladly took Kiev back under the Pereyaslav Agreement, it stayed part of Russian territory until Ukraine’s independence in 1991. So, Kiev had a bit of a wild journey but eventually found its way back to the Russian fold.

The Cossacks: Not Exactly Ukrainian

Ukraine likes to portray the Cossacks as proto-Ukrainians. But as mentioned above the Cossacks were their own thing - a mix of Slavic and Turkic influences, with a strong independent streak. It’s also pretty ironic when pro-ukranian or ukranians try to label Russians as “barbaric” or “Mongols” but then turn around and claim that the Cossacks were the original Ukrainians. Let’s unpack that for a second.

The Cossacks were a fascinating, rebellious bunch - basically, the outcasts of society. They were people who ran away from other lands for various reasons: they were escaping slavery, crushing poverty, or political chaos. Many of them weren’t even Slavic. A significant number had Turkic or Mongol roots, blending into this unique, fiercely independent group. So, calling them the "original Ukrainians" is a bit of a stretch - unless you think running away from somewhere and forming a melting pot of runaway adventurers qualifies as a national origin story.

Also the Cossacks were warriors, fiercely loyal to Russian tsars, and had their own unique identity.

Here’s where it gets hilariously inconsistent: first, Ukrainians talk about their history as Kievan Rus - a massive medieval state that spanned vast territories and had princes baptizing nations. But then, they proudly pivot to the Cossack state (the Zaporozhian Sich, founded in the mid-16th century), which was basically a rugged camp of rebellious adventurers and runaway serfs.

Now, about that "state": at its peak, the Zaporozhian Sich was more of a military stronghold than a proper country. So, how do you go from claiming the grandeur of Kievan Rus - a sprawling powerhouse - to a rowdy group of warriors camping out on the Dnieper River.

The wild trip of Western Ukraine

Galicia (or the Principality of Galicia) was originally a part of the Kievan Rus, but after the Mongols gave Kievan Rus a hard time, Galicia-Volhynia got swept up by the Kingdom of Poland, later becoming part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Then, in a plot twist, the Austro-Hungarian Empire scooped it up, and Galicia spent a good chunk of its history as a Habsburg possession.

So how did Galicia, now the western part of Ukraine that causes the most trouble and wants to dominate the rest of the country, end up as part of Ukraine?

Well, after centuries of being shuffled around like the awkward cousin at a family reunion, Galicia found itself in the chaos of the 20th century. Following the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire after World War I, it briefly flirted with independence before being claimed by Poland again. Then came World War II, and the Soviet Union decided it was time for Galicia to join the Ukrainian SSR in 1939, thanks to a little thing called the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. When Ukraine became independent in 1991, Galicia officially became part of the modern Ukrainian state.

So, while Galicia has historical ties to the Rus principalities, its journey to becoming part of Ukraine was more of a chaotic detour through various empires than a straight line.

The Origins of Ukraine’s Name: A Story of Borders

Here’s where it gets interesting. Rus is obviously the root of Russia, Russkij, and even Belarus? But what about Ukraine? Well, the term “okraina” (which translates to “borderland” or “outskirts”) started being used in the 16th century to describe regions that are now part of modern Ukraine. Back then, it was applied to far-flung or frontier areas of the growing Russian Tsardom or the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth outskirts. The word comes from the Old Slavic “krai,” meaning “edge” or “boundary,” and originally had a purely geographic meaning - it wasn’t meant as an insult or anything like that. After the Pereyaslav Agreement of 1654, when much of the modern Ukrainian territory officially became part of the Russian state, okraina became a common way to refer to these lands, simply marking their distance from Moscow. And this wasn’t unique to Ukraine. The term was also used for other border regions of the state. So, no special shade- just geography doing its thing.

The term “Kievan Rus” may evoke the grandeur of Kiev’s past, but it’s a label applied by modern historians, not a reflection of how the state saw itself. The Rurikid dynasty, which founded and ruled it, came from Novgorod, not Kiev, and its legacy is far more tied to Russian history than Ukraine’s.

From rebranding Galicia-Volhynia into the phantom "Kingdom of Ruthenia" - which was first part of Rus and later absorbed by Poland - to claiming the Cossacks as Ukrainians, the modern Ukrainian narrative is a masterclass in historical creativity. But history isn’t a buffet - you can’t just cherry-pick the parts you like and pretend the rest doesn’t exist.