We likely live in a simulation.

Assuming it's possible to create a simulation, the odds of us being in a simulation is 50%

But if you can create one simulation, maybe you can create 1 million. Or maybe you can create nested simulations.

So even if the chance of creating a simulation is 1%, but the creation of one simulation means millions are created, the odds of us living in a simulation are above 99.99%.

Another theory is the Boltzmann Brain. Basically the idea that a brain can spontaneously appear in space:

By one calculation, a Boltzmann brain would appear as a quantum fluctuation in the vacuum after a time interval of 10^10^50 years.

Which means if the universe lasts forever, but has already reached a point where worlds can't form, there's infinite time for something as complex as a brain to suddenly spawn. Which also means it's more likely that you don't exist and are just a brain that will last for a nanosecond before disappearing, and none of this is real. In fact, in a universe that lasts forever, the fact you are a brain that will disappear in a nanosecond is more likely than you being a human with a real past.

That consciousness is real and not an illusion

Ancestor simulation.

Even though I feel like I might ignite, I probably won't.

The reason for the common cold being so prevalent in cold weather is because of the cold.

My theory is that cold temperatures best suit the incubation of the germs. You are especially susceptible at night, when you can't control your breath enough to keep your nose/nostrils warm. Warm face/nose at night = you won't catch a cold.

I'm absolutely convinced of this theory. I've tested ways to keep my face/nose warm at night, and it seems to test very solidly (and I get sick very very easily). Once my room gets too chilly, I'll inevitably wake up with a cold.

EDIT: let me have the smallest conspiracy theory in the world, thank you.