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submitted 5 days ago by StraponStratos to c/world@quokk.au

"Because in 2024, Ukraine is no longer facing Russia. Soldiers from North Korea are standing in front of Ukraine. Let's be honest. Already in Ukraine, the Iranian 'Shahedis' are killing civilians absolutely openly, without any shame," said Zaluzhny, adding that North Korean and Chinese weapons are flying into Ukraine. Zaluzhny urged Ukraine's allies to draw the right conclusions. "It is still possible to stop it here, on the territory of Ukraine. But for some reason our partners do not want to understand this. It is obvious that Ukraine already has too many enemies. Ukraine will survive with technology, but it is not clear whether it can win this battle alone," he said.

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[-] perestroika@lemm.ee 31 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

My chain of reasoning:

  • if Ukraine loses (or has to enter a very unfavourable agreement), it's not due to Ukraine wanting to lose, but no longer having the means to oppose (after all, Russia is a bigger country and also inherited nearly all the weapons of the USSR, and that was a lot)
  • thus, if Ukraine loses, inability or unwillingness of allies to support them is involved
  • if subsequently, a victorious Russia recovers economically, Russia may undertake further conquests
  • the next conquest could be westward of Ukraine, and a member of NATO --> path A to a really bad war
  • however, Russia might be too exhausted to undertake another conquest soon, or might collapse economically, even into revolutionary conditions --> path to uncertain times
  • however, there's another conflict waiting to happen: China is systematically training its military for attacking Taiwan, and systematically threatening Taiwan with military maneuvers and political statemements
  • it should be noted that China has also had border conflicts with India and Vietnam, and territorial disputes with many more countries, though no claims against their sovereignity
  • if Ukraine loses, this implies that Western countries will abandon an ally if pressed hard enough
  • subsequently China will consider whether it can press Taiwan hard enough, and I think it will conclude "yes" due to proximity --> path B to a really bad war
  • this development might come to a stop though, if Taiwan should surprisingly announce on some year that it has nuclear weapons and conduct a test

Conclusion: I have doubts, but yes, there is a potential for a chain reaction if it's demonstrated that international law does not have enough backers (does not apply if you are big enough).

[-] rauls4@lemm.ee 114 points 5 days ago

Remember Trump is going to stop it before he is president! He is going to call Putin and tell him he better knock it off.

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[-] dohpaz42@lemmy.world 75 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago)

I feel like the Ukraine has one enemy. It’s just that the enemy has their hands in so many other country’s pots that those countries are either happy to help them, or obliged. But either way, I agree that Ukraine is unfortunately screwed.

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 77 points 5 days ago

Europe needs to stand the fuck up and decide if they are actually allies or not. Stop Russia now or they won't stop till they get to France.

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[-] brucethemoose@lemmy.world 29 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago)

Ukraine's enemy is Vladimir Putin's ego.

It's not even like Hitler and WWII. Hitler had plausible strategic reasons to expand Germany's territory and the industrial capacity to do it. So did Japan. Horrendous, but like reasonable in a horrific Machiavellian way.

Russia is... impaling itself over a comparatively tiny strip of territory, and dragging allies in, only because admitting defeat would bruise Putin's public image, and he basically sacrificed his entire economy and brainwashed his people to do it. Russia's actual territory isn't even at risk.

[-] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 32 points 5 days ago

comparatively tiny strip of territory

Most of Russia's land is useless...

It's not amount the amount of land it's the food they produce, the wealth of it's citizens, it's ports, and its land borders with Europ that Putin wants.

Dude is trying to claw back as much of the USSR as he can, and he'll stop with Ukraine as much as Hitler stopped with Poland.

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[-] SplashJackson@lemmy.ca 27 points 5 days ago

World War happens when at least two great powers are on either side, according to League of Nations

[-] Comment105@lemm.ee 18 points 5 days ago

It seems like it hasn't "bloomed" into something resembling the scale of the world wars yet. Ukraine is massive though, has room to contain a lot of warfare, but as of now it's still mostly contained.

I'm sure Putin would rather escalate than go back, though.

If this war leaves Ukraine, I'm gonna consider my days numbered. If it leaves Ukraine we'll probably have less than a decade left, and those years won't be good years.

Putin is so fucked in the head for wanting to conquer so bad that he's willing to do this, Russian people are equally fucked in the head for supporting it.

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[-] Sam_Bass@lemmy.world 42 points 5 days ago

Shame it couldn't've started with a better US government

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[-] laverabe@lemmy.world 9 points 4 days ago

That's a bold claim, not that I necessarily disagree with it. Are there groups of well respected historians that would agree that it has begun? I could only find a few here and there that think it has started.

[-] ReCursing@lemmings.world 10 points 4 days ago

WWII started on the 3rd of September 1939, according to British history books, and some time in 1941 according to most Americans (or so I am led to believe), but I'm sure the Poles would think it was some point before either of those...

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this post was submitted on 22 Nov 2024
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