What is got from this is: humans' lack of foresight coupled with the greed of corporations leaves poor people struggling to get basic necessities, so they're turning to solar in larger than expected numbers in some places.

The pattern is that Western energy forecasters are continually surprised by how much energy people in developing countries will consume. As countries like Pakistan grow wealthier, their people are going to demand the same energy-dependent conveniences that people in wealthy countries already do — and our energy forecasts must reflect that reality or we’re going to keep getting it wrong.

That seems like whoever's doing the number crunching is an idiot.

Damn, don't think I've seen so many links in an article in quite some years.

I am unclear how people in Pakistan installing solar to power their factories and air conditioning instead of using fossil fuels is a fatal flaw. It seems to me that it is a very good kind of flaw to have in the model.

Unless the model was assuming that Pakistan would simply have to do without air conditioning because they wouldn't be allowed to run it on fossil fuels. In which case the model had an appalling flaw in it - in the moral sense as well as magnitude.

When solar starts to eat into traditional fuel sources, the government administrations will curtail it, regardless of how powerful their nations GDP providing cheap energy to the masses would be. Power in all forms is frowned upon being in the hands of the people, in Islamofascist nations like Pakistan, or did you think that wouldn't apply?