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Megatopic: Wagner marches to Rostov-on-don (possibly beyond?) (lemmy.world)

submitted 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) by dragontamer@lemmy.world to c/world@lemmy.world

53 comments fedilink hide all child comments

There have been too many different topics on this Wagner marches to Rsotov-on-don situation. I'd like to centralize discussion here. Lets post updates all in this thread.

Context: Wagner is a Private Military Company (aka PMC) that has been helping out the Russian military, especially in the push to capture Bakhmut. Despite fighting on the Russian/Kremlin side thus far, tensions have escalated over the past months. This week, Wagner was ordered to integrate properly into the military and this was apparently the last straw. By integrating into the military proper, it would effectively remove Yevgeny Prigozhin from his position of power over Wagner.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of Wagner, started the day with a very public statement (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wagner-chief-declares-war-on-putin-after-russia-launches-missile-strike-on-his-troops/ar-AA1cX3TG), accusing the Russian military of shooting a missile at his troops. Prizgozhin has singled out Shoigu (the Russian Minister of Defense) in these public talks, and began to march his ~20,000+ Wagner troops into Russia.

https://lemmy.world/post/500076

During this march, allegedly 2 Helicopters have been shot down (https://lemmy.world/post/497656). And within this past hour, Wagner troops seem to have surrounded key buildings in Rostov-on-don, the Headquarters of the Southern Russian Military.

https://lemmy.world/post/502058

That should get us all caught up on the current events until right now. Now instead of us posting in 15 different topics, lets try to centralize the news into this topic and get a better set of discussions going.

EDIT: I will be changing this post, and the title, as events occur. To help keep everyone up-to-date on the latest developments.

Update: https://lemmy.world/comment/494242

This post shows that the Wagner group has moved as far north as Voronezh. This is suggesting that Wagner really is making a move towards Moscow.

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[-] downpunxx@lemmy.world 25 points 2 years ago

Lukashenko bugs out of Belarus to Turkey, lmmfao

[-] LostCause@kbin.social 5 points 2 years ago

Wow, ok so some shit is going down over there.

[-] LordR@kbin.social 14 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

This is exactly why you don't rely too much on mercenaries and don't give them the newest weapon systems.

But never stop an enemy making a mistake, I guess :D

[-] downpunxx@lemmy.world 12 points 2 years ago

[-] Weirdmusic@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago

🤣

[-] baascus@lemmy.world 12 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

[-] baascus@lemmy.world 7 points 2 years ago

[-] baascus@lemmy.world 5 points 2 years ago

[-] baascus@lemmy.world 6 points 2 years ago

[-] baascus@lemmy.world 3 points 2 years ago

Credit

[-] Kantiberl@kbin.social 10 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

He seems to be rather explicitly trying to exonerate Putin in this by saying the general lied to Putin and the people. The whole thing seems like a scheme by Putin to blame everything on someone else and have an easy out for why Russia "lost".

[-] Thepinyaroma@kbin.social 9 points 2 years ago

It's a tactic as old as rebellion too, though.

"I'm a loyal follower of his majesty, it's the good king's advisors poisoning his mind!"

And then you ride that wave of legitimacy and popular policy (We're gonna stop sending your kids to die for no reason!) into, well, something. Either power, force a compromise, or a horrible death. Seems like that last one was coming from all sides so why not gamble?

Either way I do not believe this is some 4D chess move by Putin. He could leave Ukraine today, throw a parade claiming victory, and I imagine the average Russian would just be glad it's over.

[-] FaceDeer@kbin.social 8 points 2 years ago

The people of Russia, by and large, worship Putin. The only way to ensure the people are on your side is to tell them that you're acting on Putin's behalf, or for the benefit of Putin.

You've probably seen some of the videos that various Russian soldiers or soldiers' wives have made over the past year, talking about how they don't have enough ammo or their loved ones are missing or whatever. Those videos are usually addressed to Putin, with the people trying to tell Putin about the problems they're having. They think the only reason things are bad is because Putin doesn't know that his underlings are running things poorly, and as soon as Putin finds out he'll make things right.

I recall reading an article some months back discussing a hypothetical scenario for how exactly Russia would "break apart", and even then the author was expecting that Putin would remain as the figurehead Tsar that everyone paid lip-service fealty to. All of the regional governors would claim legitimacy in their role by saying they were serving Putin. They'd claim that those awful nasty other governors were betraying Putin, and that's why they had to seize territory from them.

Putin's probably not going to lose that role until he dies. Maybe not even then.

[-] AlexTheLost@kbin.social 1 points 2 years ago

Maybe not even then.

Honestly this is what I expect to eventually happen. the Russian government will just not tell anyone he died and use stick footage/deepfakes to make it look like he's giving speeches and things

[-] Tyson712@kbin.social 1 points 2 years ago

Seems weird though. Why the show? Putin could just throw his general out the window, make a dumb speech and end it any time

[-] saucyloggins@lemmy.world 9 points 2 years ago

Wow this shit is rapidly unfolding. News and events are going to be pretty interesting in the coming weeks. Hopefully Putin doesn’t do anything drastic in Ukraine or abroad.

[-] downpunxx@lemmy.world 9 points 2 years ago

[-] downpunxx@lemmy.world 9 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

Wagner completely in control of Rostov, Yevgeny Prigozhin has a meeting at the headquarters of the Southern Military District with Russian Deputy Minister of Defense Yunus Bek Yevkurov and Russian First Deputy Chief of the GRU of the General Staff Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev. Video from the meeting was published by telegram channels associated with Prigozhin, as well as RT

Prigozhin demands that Russian Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu are turned over to him, in person, otherwise, Wagner PMCs will continue blockade of Rostov and go to Moscow

video: https://files.mastodon.online/cache/media_attachments/files/110/597/590/204/049/818/original/27959984d098c11a.mp4

[-] Ph0mX@kbin.social 8 points 2 years ago

CNN: Wagner claims it has taken control of military facilities in Voronezh

"Military facilities in Voronezh are taken under the control of the Wagner PMC. The army switches to the side of the people," read a short statement from Wagner's Telegram channel.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-24-23/h_1608db1fd16c668d403efece30e63a07

[-] Ph0mX@kbin.social 7 points 2 years ago

(The Guardian): Reuters is reporting that video on a pro-Wagner channel on Telegram appears to show Yevgeny Prigozhin talking to top Russian generals in what the channel says is the district military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don.

Prigozhin appears to say on the video that his men will blockade Rostov-on-Don and head for Moscow unless Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, and Gen Valery Gerasimov come to them.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-investigates-mutiny-as-wagner-chief-says-evil-military-leaders-must-be-stopped?page=with:block-649676e58f08c081c5bb7683#block-649676e58f08c081c5bb7683

[-] Ph0mX@kbin.social 7 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

CNN: Voronezh governor says convoy of military equipment is moving along the highway

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-24-23/h_c965b4914afa3aac869a395fcace9877

Voronezh is about half way to Moscow

[-] downpunxx@lemmy.world 5 points 2 years ago

[-] SilentStorms@lemmy.fmhy.ml 5 points 2 years ago

Putin was apparently supposed to speak an hour ago, but I can't find information on it anywhere

[-] Ph0mX@kbin.social 4 points 2 years ago

Apparently it just started

[-] BananaTrifleViolin@kbin.social 4 points 2 years ago

Apparentl Rostov is very important to the Russian war effort in Ukraine. It is home of the Russian southern military district command - from the Institute of the Study of War via the Guardian

[-] dragontamer@lemmy.world 3 points 2 years ago

ISW is a USA-based think tank on war matters. They're pretty hawkish, but that's why they pay attention to foreign policy events like the Ukrainian-war.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23-2023

Every day, they make huge summary posts like this on the military movements of the war.

[-] SoPunny@lemmy.world 4 points 2 years ago

What a crazy ass time to be alive.

[-] Ph0mX@kbin.social 3 points 2 years ago

(The Guardian):

Yevgeny Prigozhin says in a new video message that all military sites in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don are under the Wagner mercenary group’s control, Reuters is reporting … Prigozhin says it that does not impede Russia’s conduct of what it calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine.

[-] plz1@lemmy.world 3 points 2 years ago

Lenny needs the concept of bot based megathreads.

[-] Spacebar@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago

I saw on a live YouTube feed that the forces in the city have switched sides with barely any shots being fired.

I also saw pictures of the local forces who were very poorly equipped.

[-] dragontamer@lemmy.world 11 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

I saw on a live YouTube feed that the forces in the city have switched sides with barely any shots being fired.

That's basically the point of a coup. Ideally you don't want bloodshed. And by showing more-and-more soldiers taking your side, you strengthen your march.

Wagner's troops are allegedly halfway to driving to Moscow. Seems like all the soldiers manning the checkpoints are waving them through. The time to stop Wagner's troops was at the border. Imagine if you're some poorly-trained national guardsman watching 20,000 troops with tanks and advanced weaponry come to your checkpoint.

And they say "Look, we haven't had to kill anyone at any of the checkpoints in the last 500 miles yet, but we wouldn't mind if you were the first we had to kill. So are you going to step aside punk?"

By the time they get to Moscow, they'll have at least the tacit support of all the troops they walked passed on the way. This whole thing can be over in just a few hours. It was said that the 1917 Communist revolution over Tsar Nicholas went off with surprisingly lilttle bloodshed.

Of course, just because today is peaceful says nothing about days, or weeks from now. Soon after the (relatively peaceful) 1917 takeover, began the 1918 Russian Civil War.

[-] FaceDeer@kbin.social 4 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

Of course, just because today is peaceful says nothing about days, or weeks from now. Soon after the (relatively peaceful) 1917 takeover, began the 1918 Russian Civil War.

Indeed. My understanding is that Prigozhin is well-respected by the common military men but has no support from the oligarchs. If he seizes power I can't imagine he'll hold it. I'm just guessing of course, but I think Prigozhin's goal must be to eliminate his military rivals and remain "loyal" to Putin, leaving Putin to continue handling the oligarchs while Prigozhin becomes the indispensable military commander.

I doubt something like that would stay stable for long.

[-] TheTwoTowers@lemmy.world 3 points 2 years ago

Good points. Let's hope this will be a positive development for Ukraine.

[-] tookmyname@lemmy.ml 3 points 2 years ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_on_Rome

[-] LostMyRedditLogin@lemmy.world 1 points 2 years ago

It helps that the war is unpopular or at least known that it isn't going well among the Russian army.

[-] plz1@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago

Not surprising to me. Though I would not put it past Putin to air strike his own city.

[-] SoPunny@lemmy.world 4 points 2 years ago

Isn’t there quite a bit of speculation he already did that with some apartment buildings to blame the Chechens.

[-] downpunxx@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago

"Small arms clashes reported near Pavlovsk of Voronezh region, truck is on fire on highway, reports of tanks."

https://mastodon.online/@trammel/110597195238530925

[-] downpunxx@lemmy.world 1 points 2 years ago

Explosions and smoke in the Voronezh region, which is on the M-4 heading to Moscow.

vid: https://files.mastodon.online/cache/media_attachments/files/110/597/209/206/520/362/original/1db08efc1c4b5e2f.mp4

[-] downpunxx@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago

Over 350km north of Rostov in Voronezh Oblast, it appears that a separate group of Wagner forces are pushing north on the M4 highway, engaging Russian forces outside of Pavlovsk at the moment.

[-] SlowNPC@kbin.social 2 points 2 years ago

This thread claims Wagner basically took over Rostov

https://kbin.social/m/world@lemmy.world/t/87275/Wagner-Group-captures-headquarters-of-the-Southern-Military-District-and

[-] cloaker@kbin.social 1 points 2 years ago

Rostov SMD controls nearly the entire supply for the the defensive operations in the south and via Crimea and Kerch oblast. This is crazy.

[-] BlendedRacer@kbin.social 2 points 2 years ago

What a time to boycott Reddit! r/NCD probably looks like Randy from the Over Logging South Park episode!

[-] LordR@kbin.social 2 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

Putin seems to be quite mad about Prigoshin. Hopefully they will destroy each other.

[-] Rosriv@kbin.social 1 points 2 years ago

I guess we’ll finally see where the “average Russian’s” loyalty lies, especially after Putin’s address. But I sincerely don’t believe many people will join the coup. We’ve seen their true colours alright. If they switch, it’ll only be if and when Putin is surrounded in his bunker or in exile.

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