this post was submitted on 23 Mar 2025

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Shifts in Voting trends in different states 2020-2024 Elections [OC] (i.redd.it)

submitted 5 days ago by realitista@lemm.ee to c/dataisbeautiful@lemmy.world

30 comments fedilink hide all child comments

cross-posted from: https://lemmit.online/post/5470919

This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.

The original was posted on /r/dataisbeautiful by /u/BioDataBard on 2025-03-23 04:33:47+00:00.

top 30 comments

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[–] Knock_Knock_Lemmy_In@lemmy.world 9 points 4 days ago (2 children)

The arrows are pointing downwards, not to the right.

Republicans didn't win. Democrats lost the election.

[–] match@pawb.social 7 points 4 days ago

yes and no: the states that cross the diagonal predominantly point right and not down, and those are the "swing states" that decide the stupid electoral system

[–] realitista@lemm.ee 1 points 4 days ago

Yep.

[–] disguy_ovahea@lemmy.world 22 points 5 days ago

Thanks to the power of billionaire-controlled news and social media platforms.

[–] Mechaguana@programming.dev 8 points 4 days ago (1 children)

How the hell do you even read this graph????

[–] realitista@lemm.ee 10 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Lines going to the right mean more republican votes, lines going up mean more democrat votes. Lines going straight down mean less democrat votes without more republican votes, lines going straight left mean less republican votes without more democrat votes.

[–] Mechaguana@programming.dev 2 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Thanks for the explanation!

[–] realitista@lemm.ee 1 points 4 days ago

Any time broham

[–] pomfegranate@sh.itjust.works 6 points 4 days ago

I really like this graph

[–] Darkrib@lemm.ee 9 points 5 days ago

This would be super interesting to see over many election years, stacking arrows might be tough but maybe a simple animation?

[+] kingofras@lemmy.world -14 points 5 days ago (2 children)

Nope. Ever heard of projection?

The last 3 presidential elections were tampered with. The first one successfully and documented. The second one they failed, hence Jan 6.

And the most recent one… well, that didn’t make sense. Then I found this. https://electiontruthalliance.org/

If all of this since Jan 20 looks and smells like a coup, why would we think it didn’t start and was planned multiple years beforehand?

Ever thought Project 2025 was just the “above the water” part of the iceberg?

It’s that time again.

Blue pill or red pill?

[–] Serinus@lemmy.world 9 points 5 days ago (1 children)

They did not cheat in every single state. The results were a similar swing in every single state.

They did it through propaganda and social media. They didn't tamper with the actual results (this time).

Don't call wolf unless there's a wolf. This is a thing we need to learn from and we need real facts if we want to learn the right lessons. We lost this election because people didn't vote.

[–] kingofras@lemmy.world 1 points 4 days ago

Don’t seem like you looked at the data. The data clearly shows the lighter attempt at result skewing in the 2020 election and the much more aggressive skew in 2024.

Also lol at the downvotes. Suits this sub. The data isn’t beautiful so you downvote it. Well, I’m fresh out of blue pills.

[–] realitista@lemm.ee 4 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) (3 children)

One of the things I was looking for here was some evidence of tampering. Ie, some states moving much further towards the R's than others, etc.

Florida is the only one that looks a bit sus to me, and I wouldn't at all doubt foul play there.

The one definite trend is towards less voting over all. Whether that's the candidates, voter disenfranchisement, or rigging can be debated. But I would think that if it were foul play we would see it more pronounced in some states than others.

Anyhow, data is data, make of it what you like.

[–] match@pawb.social 3 points 4 days ago (1 children)

wait, actually, i just commented this on another post: all the swing states, the ones crossing the diagonal, have a wildly different trajectory than either the solid blue states or solid red states. the swing states go right and not down (WI goes right and up??) and everyone else drops down. aren't those the states we would expect foul play in?

[–] realitista@lemm.ee 3 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (1 children)

Good point. Now that you mention it, I see it. Far smaller drop in voting in the swing states that Trump won. Even one anomalous increase.

[–] kingofras@lemmy.world 2 points 4 days ago

Once you look at the data up close you can see how they attempted the skewing in 2020, but didn’t go aggressive enough, and this time they went full throttle.

If you consider the USA has the mightiest military and is (for some bizarre reason) still the world reserve currency with the petrodollar, then it really was only a matter of time before some foreign entity figured out how to do this.

USA democracy was finished at the Citizens United point, but it limped on till November last year.

There will be more elections and they will not be as rigged to keep the appearance up, but the executive branch is done. Very likely Musk runs in 28 and algorithmically wins in a landslide.

That is, if they’re able to prevent most polling places from burning down or flooding or blowing away.

[–] Hugin@lemmy.world 2 points 4 days ago

As someone who has lived in Florida my whole life there has been a massive influx of republicans in the last 10 years.

[–] surewhynotlem@lemmy.world -1 points 5 days ago (1 children)

How can we validate who we vote for after the fact?

Have you personally met anyone that voted for Trump, and then Democrats down ballot?

These are real questions, not gotchas, btw. These are the things eating away at me.

[–] Serinus@lemmy.world 2 points 5 days ago (1 children)

I know what article you're referring to, and it was bullshit. Bullet ballots and all sounded great, believable. Evidence with easily verifiable numbers.

But when I went to verify those numbers with actual election results, they were all bullshit. Swing states did not have the bullet ballots numbers he claimed. There was no big discrepancy between swing states and the states next to them.

[–] surewhynotlem@lemmy.world 0 points 5 days ago (2 children)

There's great to hear, but I'm still rather lost on why nc has a Democrat governor then. Do you still have your analysis handy? I'd love to see the details. I wasn't able to figure it out myself :-/

[–] jj4211@lemmy.world 2 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (1 children)

The governor is easy to explain, the Republican candidate was never well liked, and then it came out that he specifically called himself a black Nazi and the Republican party threw him under the bus.

The lieutenant governor and attorney general remain odd, but that's NC for you. They sometimes just vote Democrat for statewide State races and then vote republican federal.

I suppose the counter question would be if they were manipulating the votes directly, why not also rig the down ballot election?

[–] surewhynotlem@lemmy.world 1 points 4 days ago (1 children)

I think that answer is actually easier. Trump cares about Trump.

[–] jj4211@lemmy.world 2 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (1 children)

While that's true, even Trump will throw a few hollow words in support of other Republicans and declare himself a Republican and knows the result is his life is easier with Republicans victories.

In a hypothetical cheating scenario, it's not like Trump directly did the cheating, some broad conspiracy across multiple states would require a number of players, coordinated since the "evidence" is similar dropoff across many states. Any such conspiracy would doubtless recognize the strategic value of allies also winning, even if they didn't care about the allies directly. Such a conspiracy would be keyed into the same sentiment that wants to do everything they can to install conservative loyalists across the executive and judicial branches as quickly as they can. There's no way such a conspiracy would neglect legislators and state governments if they had given themselves that opportunity.

The drop offs could be explained much more simply that MAGA is only about Trump and not about Republicans. If Trump only cares about Trump, the same can be said if his followers. Most of them will vote R as long as they are filling out a ballot anyway, but they barely even show up for Trump loyalists in the midterms. So it's quite reasonable to expect a bunch of Trump people to just go in for the one thing they care about and ignore the rest.

[–] surewhynotlem@lemmy.world 1 points 4 days ago

This makes a lot of sense. Thanks!

(I know I'm not adding to the conversation, but I feel like a silent upvote doesn't do justice to the effort you took to write that)

[–] Serinus@lemmy.world 2 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Here is the bullshit article (that sounds good).

https://substack.com/home/post/p-151721941

One of the claims is

North Carolina is the most extreme. The public results indicate over 350K voters cast a ballot for Trump and no other race making up over 11% of Trump’s voters in NC drop off votes or bullet ballots.

https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/north-carolina/?r=0

Donald Trump: 2,898,423
Kamala Harris: 2,715,375
Jill Stein + Chase Oliver: 47,000
Total: 5,660,798 roughly

Governor: 3.069m + 2.241m + 280742 = 5.60 million

That's not a difference of 350k.

[–] surewhynotlem@lemmy.world 1 points 4 days ago (2 children)

Sure it is. You're messing up your significant digits.

3.069 + 2.241 - 5.660 = 0.350

[–] Serinus@lemmy.world 2 points 4 days ago

North Carolina 2024 Gubernatorial vote totals

[–] Serinus@lemmy.world 2 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (1 children)

You just left out 281k third party votes.

[–] surewhynotlem@lemmy.world 1 points 4 days ago

Thanks, that makes more sense