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traders are assuming that Trump will abandon the conflict before the economic toll of a prolonged war reaches extreme levels.
They don't seem to realize that Iran gets a vote on when this war ends. They assume that Trump can end this whenever he gets bored, but nothing stops Iran from continuing to hit US+ally assets in the region while continuing to restrain Strait traffic.
I think they're deliberately trying to keep investoids 3 weeks behind, but yeah we also knew that 3 weeks ago it's central premise of the Short War flowchart
Right, that's the elephant in the room. The US can certainly pack up and go home, but Iran can keep Hormuz closed until their demands are met. And that makes it pretty much impossible for the US to spin this as some sort of victory. So, I full expect the US will just keep doubling down on escalation here.
The world needs more women in leadership roles (not Takaichi-style)
What style then? Thatcher? Hillary ?
they should keep pummeling us/israel bases until they closed down and the rest are out of range. the US does not need bases outside of US soil.
Condensing some information for discussion here (and thanks for providing the archive link!):
It’s not clear what further tools President Donald Trump has to keep global oil prices from surging in the near term – other than fully reopening the strait.
The situation is even more extreme in liquefied natural gas. The Strait of Hormuz typically accounts for about a fifth of global supply...The US is the world’s biggest LNG exporter, and its domestic gas market is relatively insulated from the war due to its massive production.
So...why would Trump want to reopen the Straight? Keeping oil in short supply keeps the petrodollar dominant. And it increases the value of domestic oil/natural gas.
In short, Trump has no reason to ease gas prices. The effects on the upper class are minimal, and he's shown that he absolutely does not care about the economic impact of his policies upon the working class.
A very informative article, but (as always seems to be the case with major news outlets) a bit short on analysis and clarity.
It's not that simple. Iran is now demanding that oil tankers that pass through Hormuz are settling in Yuan, which directly attacks the petrodollar hegemony. On top of that, US economy depends on trade with other western aligned economies. If they go down, then the US will be dragged down as well. And people in the US can't exactly afford stratospheric increase in gas prices either. Another problem is that fertilizer exports are now collapsing, and that affects the US as well. If fertilizer isn't in the ground by May, then the harvest will be lost with yields collapsing. All of this is very bad news for the US.
Also helium supply. Goodbye MRIs, semiconductor manufacturing, and aluminum welding...
I imagine this is where the US actually sees a benefit being the largest supplier.
I agree, of course, that my assessment is simplified. There's always a host of variables.
Until OPEC agrees to Iran's demands to change to Yuan, they'll still settle in USD. So at this point, it's just background noise.
Yes, there are ripple effects. Yes, people will go hungry (hungrier?). Freight costs increase. Less travel. Everything that depends on that sweet, sweet crude will increase in cost.
Again, this doesn't affect Trump and his cronies. They have money. They don't care about the average American and they never did. They don't care about any other citizen of the world unless that citizen is hideously wealthy AND willing to eat at the same table.
It's outrageous, of course. But this situation didn't just magically create itself. It's been the norm since OPEC was formed. Our global economy depends on oil, which means every person's well-being depends on it. The solution is energy independence, but it's really difficult to get people excited about solar panels. They would much rather see bombs and bullets on TV.
OPEC can't settle anything at all when they can't ship their gas and oil. And to do so requires dealing with Iran. They can continue to insist that they will settle in USD, but they can't actually move the goods without Iran's approval. That is the conundrum.
Of course, Trump and his inner circle aren't going to be affected by any of this, but that is besides the point. What matters is that if the west collapses economically, then we'll be living in a very different world. The boot of the west will come off the neck of humanity, and the rest of the world will finally have a chance to breathe.
OR...and hear me out on this....
Trump escalates the war on the premise that the US should provide safe passage to those ships. He dumps a fleet or two of ships into the Gulf, along with a trillion dollars or so for a ground war and insurance for the tankers. The US and Israel promise to keep the Gulf secure in perpetuity.
we’ll be living in a very different world. The boot of the west will come off the neck of humanity, and the rest of the world will finally have a chance to breathe.
We're already seeing this trend and have for years - but Rome doesn't collapse in a day.
The entire point of the petrodollar is to perpetuate the US hegemony. The entire world, including our allies, know this. The average American knows this. It's just that Americans aren't in agreement as to whether the current arrangement with OPEC is a net good or a net bad.
I mean he can do that, but that's not going to magically open the strait. Iran effectively has unlimited resources compared to whatever the US navy can bring to bear. They're on land, and fighting on their home turf. The US has a fundamental logistical disadvantage here, and there's no way around it. The US is no physically capable of opening the strait.
But, let's for the sake of argument assume that the US could magically open up Hormuz. Iran can simply destroy the rest of oil and gas infrastructure in the gulf in response. So, there's going to be nothing to ship at that point. They've already demonstrated their ability to do exactly that. They hold all the cards here.
Right, the entire point of the petrodollar is to perpetuate US hegemony, and that's precisely why the US is fucked now. As long as Iran controls the strait, they control what currency a huge chunk of oil will be traded in. Meanwhile Russia, which is the other major oil exporter, is already trading outside the dollar. On top of that, I expect that many countries will start getting serious about renewables out of sheer necessity. Even if the war stopped tomorrow, it's going to take years to rebuild the infrastructure that's been already destroyed. This isn't a short term shock countries can just ride out. So, we'll see more oil traded outside the dollar, and less demand for oil going forward. This is basically the worst possible outcome for the US.
Whatever the US agrees with OPEC is completely and utterly irrelevant here.
Yeah!