I don't think anyone can tell where we're going. Mastodon.social was the largest instance by far for some time, then at the deluge, it splintered.

Part of the reason for Mastodon to fracture is specialization - each instance does something unique. Maybe Lemmy will do the same, maybe not.

But if we end up with 3 primary instances, it's still decentralized - I think the most useful feature of Lemmy isn't that we're spread out, it's that we could be.

A little bit early to be worried about this. This server is very new.

I'm an ex-redditor, so I'm still getting my lemmy legs. I don't know how things will play out a decade from now, but I'm enjoying being here during this little sliver of social media history.

I'm kinda digging the order and the volatility. I very much enjoy how easy it is to simply up and leave one instance for another, without experiencing an abrupt shift of everything from how stuff works, to basic etiquette.

It just seems like a very difficult place to power trip.

You can check stats on instances here.

lemmy.world is #2 by total user count (lemmy.ml being the 1st), but #1 by active users.

And judging by the Local posts and Local comments count, it seems that .world users interact more with communities in other instances than the local ones, unlike the other top instances.

So I would dare to say that your concern over content being monopolized by .world (based on subscribers to local communities) isn't founded - high number of users, but they tend to subscribe and interact more with communities on other instances.

This is of course anecdotal (same as your example), but I tend to see the opposite in my feed - few posts from communities on .world. It's very subjective based on what you subscribed to.

The high number of users on .world is because it still has open registration (server was recently upgraded beyond current capacity).

I've posted about this before and I think a lot of people disagree, but some centralization is good. There has to be a no-thought option for when people want to join Lemmy. After they learn more about federation, they can move on to another instance.

The reason why kbin grew so fast is because for a lot of people, Kbin = kbin.social (See how "kbin" links to kbin.social on: list of alternatives on Reddit)

I believe this also explains Beehaw's growth despite their onerous rules. When someone recommends Beehaw, they don't need to think about which instance of Beehaw they want to join, they just go to Beehaw.

A lot of people are dogmatic about federation, but I quite frankly think that if you are going to die on the hill, don't complain when you die.

You're not wrong. There needs to be slightly better/more informative marketing that your communities are accessible from anywhere, and locale of the server doesn't matter.

People are joining lemmy.world before they learn/understand they can access communities from any federated node (which is nearly everything except beehaw)

I think that is true. Could be because instances like Lemmy.ml don't let new users create an account, beehaw unfederated other instances and kbin also has some problems with federation.. So, only Lemmy.world can really thrive I guess. Other instances I have not seen that much. Maybe sh.itjust.works (or something like that) are thriving but I don't know.

I think we'll see a bunch of the top communities gravitate towards a few instances, but the userbase will spread out over time. Right now people are going to the biggest, b/c they just want to get on and try it out. But over time as people learn how to work with this new system they'll venture out to others. I could see a lot of people eventually hosting their own instance just for their one user, but have no communities of its own.

But for communities, finding an instance that has the right rules and plugins available will lead them to looking for trusted servers to moderate them from. As long as what Beehaw's doing doesn't become a trend, it should be fine

There's still a world (no pun intended) of difference, between a single company with a single instance that doesn't interface with anything else. And a large instance on a federated network :)

we're doing fine here on kbin, a little too much growth tbh. lemmy.world is pretty active but it's not the only active instance :)

programming.dev is thriving but we are also a niche, lots of good communities for developers.

To be honest it is to be expected, people will flock to the most active (and consequentially better maintained, at least subjectively) instances.

This might only change once these big instance become saturated and close signups, though even still I expect to see only a handful of Lemmy / KBin instances staying relevant once the dust is settled, especially with the recent precedents like Beehaw defederating from “too open” instances.

I think it's ok, as long as federation still works and migration is sorted out. The problem with centralisation is the control that can give. If there's a mechanism to move a community or user to a new instance without too much disruption, then the users maintain control and have recourse if the operators do something unpopular.

Mastodon has a pretty good system that automatically moves people's follows to your new account if you move. We need something like that for Lemmy.

C'mon. No single instance has as many users as any of the top 20 sub reddits I bet. Spreading out over 5 main instances is fine. The important thing is if one instance shits the bed, you have options. If the community isn't served properly they can easily jump to a new instance.

Decoupled from venture backed tech corporations is all that matters. Close second is actual people creating actual content, which feels like the case! Curious to see how moderation pans out in the long run, but at least it’s in the hands of the community itself.

You could always unsubscribe from general communities in lemmy.world and subscribe to general communities on other instances instead.

There are many other instances. Feel free to join them :)

I think people(people includes me, I tihnk the majority of users are new to this stuff) still don't get that unless a certain instance de-federalizes others en masse, you're still gonna be able to access it's content and contribute from your instance.

Although, in general,I wouldn't be worried. Even if a certain instance is getting big, you are still not subject to the whims of some venture capitalist corp in silicon valley.

lemmy.world's pretty big, but I'm still getting other places. More spread would always be good though. Counts from my all feed -

  48 | lemmy.world
  14 | beehaw.org
  12 | sh.itjust.works
   4 | lemmy.dbzer0.com
   4 | lemmy.film