This may be another, "do nothing then win" scenario for China. The AI bubble depends on continuous infusion of capital for the next several years. That effectively means a lot of folks need to borrow a lot of money. Interest rates increasing, the cost of power increasing, the costs of CPUs, GPUs, and memory increasing, and a slowdown in delivery times for all those components all exacerbate their core problem. We may well be looking at an AI bubble burst to go along with a broader economic downturn due to the war.
China doesn't need to blockade anyone. Continue to be a reliable and trustworthy partner while the US flounders and see what happens. The only major economy that doesn't depend on AI succeeding is China.
I think this ties into the key responsibility of those of us based in the imperial core. Disruption and pressure on the system from inside gives Iran more breathing room and better negotiating terms. Do folks have good ideas for things we can be doing while staying within the bounds of the law? The Internationalist group I'm involved in has been looking at helping students organize anti recruitment efforts. I'd love to hear about things other folks are trying.