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this post was submitted on 02 Apr 2024
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The problem is that Elons con man routine is the only reason Tesla is so overvalued. I'm sure they are afraid that if they let him go the stock price would readjust to a reasonable market price.
No matter what you think of him, he is brilliant at conning a tech enthusiast's money out of their wallets.
Oh, it's not the only reason, and the other may actually be worse. They sold $1.8 billion of carbon credits to other auto manufacturers last year. Which is pretty much free money to them. And hastens climate change, but, you know, free money.
That just comes with the territory of being wealthy, which he lucked into thanks to Peter Thiel taking a liking to him (probably because he wanted to fuck him). People confused the companies he invested in which happened to be successful despite him, and would probably more successful if he weren't involved- see SpaceX when Shotwell took over day-to-day operations.
Lots of people, otherwise smart people, smell someone with money and say, "I want to go to there" because they think wealth can be transmitted through close contact.
I call it the Biggest Asshole in the Room strategy. Capitalists can be extremely successful by simply being the biggest asshole in the room. Smarter, more talented, better comnected people will cater to the biggest asshole in the room simply because it makes life easier to appease them. See also: Trump, Jobs, Bezos, Gates, anybody on Shark Tank, Ortega, Murdoch, Koch Bros, etc., all masters of the strategy. It's a personality type that aligns perfectly with the free market where inertia and friction generate profit from the work of creation, innovation, and productivity.
Nah this iant true at all. I covered this in another xomment so Im gonna copypasta it here...
Tesla has the following:
Custom AI silicon designed by the designer of Apple's M1 chip. It's designed for training. They are about to scale it massively to create the Dojo supercomputer. They look to be on par with NVidia on performance/$. No small feat, and means they arent reliant on NVidia
They have custom inferrence chips used in all of their cars and their android robot. It gets fantastic performance per watt. My 5 year old car has first-gen inferrence chips and it's still getting better with software... meaning it hasnt reached its potential. The latest chip design is probably much better, but I dont know much about it
They have possibly the best humanoid hands and arms that will work with this AI goodness.
Their walking and navigation is looking to be top notch... We'll see
FSD really is incredible. I drive with it and it improves every year. Just got 12.3 and it's pretty bomb.
Tesla solar is still a thing. The model 3 kinda derailed development a while back and it never really recovered. I think competitors are doing well and Tesla sees better returns on their other projects. Tesla needs to bring down their Solar prices which they just dont seem to be doing. Im guessing they dont want to scale manufacturing yet.
They have some of the largest casting machines on the planet and press out the frames of their cars for far cheaper than their competition can stamp and weld theirs. Stellantis and Toyota are adopting this manufactiring strategy as fast as they can, but they are a year or maybe 2 behind. I suspect Ford, VW and GM are adopting this too.
Tesla factory floors are much more efficient at iterating and improving. Their in-house software for managing workers and workflow development are unique to Tesla. Just look at the efficient packaging of their HVAC system after dozens of iterations every year for a couple years. It's by far the best HVAC in the car world.
They have developed a lithium clay extraction process that vastly reduces chemical waste and water usage. They're still 5 or so years out from implementing this in even a small capacity and clay extraction isnt guaranteed to be superior to spodumene. I expect the efforts they're putting to this will pay off in 15 years.
They own lithium clay rights in Nevada where some of the richest Lithium clay deposits are. I think theyre doing permitting for mining, which will probably take to the end of the decade. Mining's crazy
They offer the best price for grid-scale batteries and are growing that business faster than their cars grew. Hawaii just replaced their last coal peaker plant with Tesla batteries. California and Australia are saving a lot of money with them. The batteries pay for themselves when used to replace peaker plants and stuff to maintain frequency.
They are growing so-called virtual power plants and have been doing extremely well in a few test locations in Texas, Australia and Puerto Rico. I think the UK too?
After funding and working with the inventor of the lithium battery's team they've been getting first looks at new battery chemistry. The thick walls of their 4680 are designed with adding silicon in mind. I suspect theyre testing this out at Kato road production facility.
They've collected a bunch of battery manufacturing patents over the years and their dry-electrode process is providing very good economics. Getting them to scale has been excruciatingly slow, but they're about to triple capacity this year in Texas and I think are starting development of another iteration of their 4680 battery production process at their Kato road facility right now.
They are on track for becoming a top-three battery manufacturer by the end of the decade.
GM and Ford's battery packs are like 5 years behind tesla's. Tesla packs more battery in less volume using less weight with better thermals and ridgidity. Their packs are a lot cheaper to produce too.
Tesla claims they have a ferro magnet motor in development. We'll see. If so, watch out for very cheap electric cars with no rare-earths or cobalt
They just signed deals with BP and an another conglomerate to sell chargers for the other business' charging infrastructure. More volume means cheaper manufacturing for their own charging stations too.
All cars will soon have the NACS plug so everyone will be able to charge at a Tesla station... Which is the largest and most reliable charging network in the world.
Battery prices keep falling. Gas cars are going to have to compete with cheaper electric by the end of the decade. Tesla isnt competing with other electric car makers so much as it's competing with fossil fuels. Electric will win this. The faster the better
Elon has contributed to these only in a "we're gonna fund these wild ideas!" Way. Like Edison. He's smart and avoided bad projects and embraced fast failing to great success... Things are maturing and I dont think there's much value to get from Elon...
Tesla will be fine without Elon. I'd argue better.
The only fear of Elon leaving would be big oil investors buying control and derailing things... I dont think that'll happen though. I think enough investors are in it specifically to eliminate fossil fuel dependency.
The fear of Elon staying is he drags Tesla into his edgelord bullshit and uses it to dick over the world as hard as he and some dictator/billionaire friends can... Which seems more likely
After he derailed the CA bullet train with his hyperloop hyperbole and joked on twitter abould the Bolivian coup, I dont trust his ass one bit.
I think the problem with these claims is that they're all being made by Musk. Who has proven time and time again that he over-promises and under delivers literally every project he associates himself with.
If we actually look at where they are actually making their money it's primarily just in their vehicle sales/leasing. They aren't a silicon valley start up, they are a vehicle manufacturer, and when we analyze them as such, there is no real way to equate them with having 10x the market cap of ford.
I don't know how you could not trust him one bit, yet trust that what he claims Tesla is doing is what Tesla is actually doing. Custom ai chip, dojo super computer, android robot with the best hands.....all of these seem like marketing scams. How does this improve the sale of cars to a significant degree? Seems like he's just like every tech bro in the country scrambling for the new block chain, or VR type marketing gimmick.
They're all fields of study that already have huge companies that have already invested significant amounts of capital and research on. What makes us assume that Tesla is going to be able to profit from these ventures when they haven't even figured out how to make a truck?
I'm not claiming that Tesla is a worthless company, I just don't think they're worth 10x more than the most popular vehicle manufacturer in America.