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this post was submitted on 30 May 2024
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There is no way he's going to jail over this. I mean I wish, but I don't think that sentence would be consistent with similar cases. This is just the appetizer. He needs to be found guilty in a case with teeth like the classified documents.
There haven't been any similar cases to this
He absolutely still won't see prison, but it's not because of sentencing guidelines
There haven't?
Being an ex-president isn't what it would be compared to.
There absolutely have been felony falsified records cases with first time offenders. His political status makes the case noteworthy but since our laws don't treat him as being different from anyone else (at least until the Supreme Court rules on that), there is plenty of precedent here.
The judge did indeed treat him very differently when he was in contempt, so I very much doubt he will receive equal treatment now. He will be treated with kids gloves and given the extra light sentencing. I expect some strongly worded speech, at most.
For sure. My point was no one gets jail, so Trump certainly won't, and there will be no room to complain he's getting preferential treatment because the absolute most he can get is a slap on the wrist. If the judge decided to go absolute ham and jail him due to how egregious it is in the context of a presidential election, it would be appealed and thrown out immediately.
Some folks are holding out faint hope for jail, but that will not happen and would play right into Trump's hand if it did.
Best outcome would be if Merchan gives him 4 years of probation, just in case he wins the election. That turns into prison time if he commits another crime.