Democrats lose ground in 6 states with election forecaster’s postdebate shift. (thehill.com)

submitted 1 month ago by TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

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Key quote:

Biden’s defiance against calls for him to leave the presidential campaign after last month’s debate have only worsened his chances in November, Cook Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter wrote.

“Biden was losing pre-debate. Now, he’s losing by a bit more,” she said, adding that the possibility Biden leaves the race at this point is “remote.”

Citing postdebate polling, Cook announced it will move Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic.” The group also moved Nevada, Arizona and Georgia from “Tossup” to “Lean Republican.”

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[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 9 points 1 month ago

Nevada, Arizona and Georgia have been on the "R" side for quite some time now.

I'm not currently seeing a path where Biden can win. Last time it all came down to New Mexico.

This time? Michigan is the only bright spot.

Arizona - Trump +3 to +7
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/arizona/

Nevada - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/nevada/

New Mexico - Biden +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/

Georgia - Trump +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/georgia/

Pennsylvania - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Michigan - Biden +5 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/

Wisconsin - Biden +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Minnesota - Biden +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/

North Carolina - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/north-carolina/

Here's what it looks mapped out:

Biden CANNOT LOSE either Pennsylvania or Michigan. He HAS to carry both to block a Trump win.

[-] soratoyuki@lemmy.world 5 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Imagine being downvoted for posting polls lol. I hate to invoke Reddit, but for all the (very legitimate!) criticism people had of a The Donald and other heavily censored and astroturfed conservative communities, internet liberals created the exact same echo chambers for themselves that suddenly burst after the debate. I guess they have no idea for to handle that they've been lied to about Biden and the state of the election, and all they can do is downvote the truth?

[-] ShittyBeatlesFCPres@lemmy.world 3 points 1 month ago

People “unskewing” the polls is a tradition as old as polls, I’m sure.

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 1 points 1 month ago

I'm a mod, I've handled worse. :)

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this post was submitted on 09 Jul 2024

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