Democrats lose ground in 6 states with election forecaster’s postdebate shift. (thehill.com)

submitted 1 month ago by TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

64 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Key quote:

Biden’s defiance against calls for him to leave the presidential campaign after last month’s debate have only worsened his chances in November, Cook Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter wrote.

“Biden was losing pre-debate. Now, he’s losing by a bit more,” she said, adding that the possibility Biden leaves the race at this point is “remote.”

Citing postdebate polling, Cook announced it will move Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic.” The group also moved Nevada, Arizona and Georgia from “Tossup” to “Lean Republican.”

top 50 comments

sorted by: hot top controversial new old

[-] JimSamtanko@lemm.ee 33 points 1 month ago

There are people here that seem to actively WANT you to not vote against Trump. They know what’s at stake. And they know they can’t come here and try to pump anyone up about another four years with Trump. They’re aware of the demographic here on lemmy.

So they do the next best thing-

Attack his competition.

They did it in 2016, and again in 2020. Now they’re trying to seal the deal. They are not here in good faith. They are here to disrupt an election. Don’t let them.

Vote like lives depend on it. Because while yours may be safe- many won’t be.

[-] brucethemoose@lemmy.world 7 points 1 month ago

I am voting, but in the presidential race, it literally doesn't matter in the two states I've lived in, just as it never has.

load more comments (1 replies)

load more comments (15 replies)

[-] carl_dungeon@lemmy.world 10 points 1 month ago

This is so dumb- let’s elect Hitler’s biggest fan cause the other guy is slightly not as good as I’d like.

load more comments (11 replies)

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 9 points 1 month ago

Nevada, Arizona and Georgia have been on the "R" side for quite some time now.

I'm not currently seeing a path where Biden can win. Last time it all came down to New Mexico.

This time? Michigan is the only bright spot.

Arizona - Trump +3 to +7
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/arizona/

Nevada - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/nevada/

New Mexico - Biden +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/

Georgia - Trump +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/georgia/

Pennsylvania - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Michigan - Biden +5 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/

Wisconsin - Biden +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Minnesota - Biden +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/

North Carolina - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/north-carolina/

Here's what it looks mapped out:

Biden CANNOT LOSE either Pennsylvania or Michigan. He HAS to carry both to block a Trump win.

[-] soratoyuki@lemmy.world 5 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Imagine being downvoted for posting polls lol. I hate to invoke Reddit, but for all the (very legitimate!) criticism people had of a The Donald and other heavily censored and astroturfed conservative communities, internet liberals created the exact same echo chambers for themselves that suddenly burst after the debate. I guess they have no idea for to handle that they've been lied to about Biden and the state of the election, and all they can do is downvote the truth?

[-] ShittyBeatlesFCPres@lemmy.world 3 points 1 month ago

People “unskewing” the polls is a tradition as old as polls, I’m sure.

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 1 points 1 month ago

I'm a mod, I've handled worse. :)

[-] JimSamtanko@lemm.ee 4 points 1 month ago

And how accurate has 538 been lately? Didn’t they have Clinton winning in 2016?

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 6 points 1 month ago

This isn't about their predictions, it's looking at recent polling data they are aggregating.

[-] JimSamtanko@lemm.ee 2 points 1 month ago

And polling data is seriously flawed. I suggest people vote as if there are no polls.

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 8 points 1 month ago

It can be flawed, which is why you track multiple polls over time.

Using the same process outlined above, I watched these states go from pro-Biden, to toss-up, to pro-Trump, and now stronger pro-Trump.

It's less about the actual numbers and more about the momentum. Biden's campaign is running out of steam, Trump's is gaining momentum.

[-] JimSamtanko@lemm.ee 3 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Well, I can honestly say that as a cis white male, I will have little to worry about when Biden looses. And if I left it at this, no one would ever hear from me.

But I have LGBTQ in my family, my blood. And many friends that will be hurt by another four years of Trump.

So… this is where we’re at.

You have a shit ton of people in your community- urging people to not vote because “old!” While a rapist/convicted felon is waltzing right through the mess, not even being questioned about how or why he lied in every answer he gave.

These people are fucking lunatics man. This should be a no brainer. Biden’s podium could poll worse than Trump and I’d vote for it.

These people are willing to destroy a nation if it means an old man is not elected. Note how I didn’t say genocide supporter- yeah. It’s a non issue now with them. Did you notice?

[-] Zaktor@sopuli.xyz 2 points 1 month ago

Ah, one of those steadfast LGBTQ allies who also hates SJWs. That's a coherent personality, but most of the examples of it are Republicans who discovered the leopards would eat their loved ones faces (or usually that their loved ones were revealed as leopard prey), but then didn't evaluate any of the other social propaganda they had bought into.

load more comments (3 replies)

[-] Zaktor@sopuli.xyz 5 points 1 month ago

Biden has been consistently polling behind the Democrats who also have a state-wide election. If it's flawed it's in a very specific way that overweights the specific kind of Democratic voter that supports their state candidate and doesn't support Biden. That's not particularly likely.

[-] soratoyuki@lemmy.world 6 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

538 gave Trump about a 30% chance of winning in 2016, while a lot of other poll aggregators were giving him single digit chances.

Biden is unpopular and losing. He was unpopular and losing before the debate and he's still unpopular and losing. He barely beat an impeached Trump that oversaw almost a million Covid deaths and a wrecked economy in 2020, and that was when he could still string two coherent sentences together.

Why are so many liberals determined to bury their heads in the sand about this? The Democratic Party is casually coasting towards catastrophe.

[-] ShittyBeatlesFCPres@lemmy.world 2 points 1 month ago

Believe me, no one is burying their heads in the sand. The NY Times just spent like two weeks covering nothing but Biden’s age. I had to scroll down like 1500px to find the fucking French election results and I’m not even sure they bothered to send someone to cover the hurricane that wrecked multiple countries and hit one of the most populous regions of the country.

[-] Zaktor@sopuli.xyz 3 points 1 month ago

If you believe this is the most important election in our lifetimes and believe the polls and analysis that put Biden in a bad and worsening position, it's kind of the most important story in the country, if not the world. There's a reason it's like a 50% of all political discussions here.

load more comments (1 replies)

load more comments (10 replies)

load more comments (2 replies)

[-] lennybird@lemmy.world 7 points 1 month ago

It's okay guys because his vibe from crowd sizes overrides aggregate Grade-A polling. And if he loses, well, at least he did his goodest.

load more comments (1 replies)

[-] ThanksObama@sh.itjust.works 5 points 1 month ago

Poll don't vote.

[-] Omega_Man@lemmy.world 2 points 1 month ago

Sadly, we won't know what we had until it's gone.

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 1 points 1 month ago

They paved paradise, put up a parking lot?

load more comments

this post was submitted on 09 Jul 2024

7 points (54.3% liked)

politics

18586 readers

4306 users here now

Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!

Rules:

Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive.
Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning

We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.

All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.

That's all the rules!

Civic Links

• Register To Vote

• Citizenship Resource Center

• Congressional Awards Program

• Federal Government Agencies

• Library of Congress Legislative Resources

• The White House

• U.S. House of Representatives

• U.S. Senate

Partnered Communities:

• News