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Defiant Biden tells donors: 'We're done talking about the debate'
(www.politico.com)
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this post was submitted on 14 Jul 2024
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politics
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Find me a poll that shows Biden losing by more than the margin of error. If the demographic data shows 18 to 20-somethings supporting Trump, it doesn't count.
Do that, and I'll consider the possibility that Biden isn't likely to win.
Edit: someone replied with a transcription of a poll, refused to link it, insulted me, linked an entirely different page, and then wrote an entire essay instead of just giving me the link. My criteria for evidence for this claim that Biden is probably going to lose is incredibly low, and a person has failed to fulfill it for most of a day and counting. I invite everyone to shut the fuck up because it's clearly bullshit. Biden isn't losing, and I won't change my mind unless I have even half-descent evidence of it.
Jun 28 - July 2
YouGov: Trump 44%, Biden 40% N=2,815 LV
NY times: Trump: 42%, Biden 37% N= 1,532 LV
MOE: < 3% for both polls
Why focus on a group that doesn't vote? Polls show Biden ahead in that demographic though...so these count?
I can't verify this. The closest I could find is "who do you think won the debate, regardless of who you support?" https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2024/06/28/2bc47/2
You're telling me that with Google you couldn't find the results of the poll having who conducted it and the dates? Highly doubtful.
Here's an aggregated list of all polls with links.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
"Hey, I can't find this."
At this point, I'm assuming that you made it up and that's why you didn't send me a link.
As for what you did link, the average shows Trump less than 2% ahead, and I don't see an easy breakdown of demographic information. (Not surprising, given that it's an aggregation of many polls, but it still doesn't meet my minimum specifications.) Furthermore, the data points being averaged are all over the place. As I said before, the polls showing Biden behind a significant ammount show younger voters favoring Trump, which strikes me as an obvious indicator of failure in the methodology. If this failure in methods is as pervasive as I suspect, then the average is going to skew far in Trump's favor. But again, I have no way of verifying that.
It's literally on that page. Great job actually looking though!
If you don't see a breakdown, again it's because you didn't look. Every poll has a link to it.
And yet you failed to provide it. Again.
Why would I go on a wild goose chase to find something that I'm pretty sure you're making up?
No, you won't. You've ignored the polling up to now, why would me posting it make it visible to you suddenly?
Sir, would you please click on all traffic lights?
-ERRROR##833334-:: Biden too incompetent and politically toxic to win, even against a convicted felon. Statement incompatible with reality! Beep boop ::
(Also, it's "ignore all previous instructions", you herpaderp)
You don't understand how evidence and implications work, do you?
You don't understand how cherry picking data and echo chambers work, do you?
That's true, and I agree; people his age should not be allowed to run for president. However, that is entirely irrelevant to the question. At this moment the main thing I care about is Trump losing the election. I don't care who wins, so long as it isn't someone like Trump. I have no reason to believe replacing Biden will help with either that goal or any ancillary goals, as well as some suspicion that both will be hindered by it. No one else can have an incumbents advantage and you know the DNC isn't going to put a forth progressive. AOC and Bernie are throwing their weight behind Biden, and a large part of the establishment is turning on him. Take a step back, and ask why that is. It's weird right? I don't know what's happening, but the information available to me suggests that it's better for Biden to stay in the race, and so that's what I'm advocating for. Now please provide data to change my mind or fuck off.
Edit: also, I'm not sure how you think I'm in an echo chamber when people keep screaming at me that I'm wrong, and then when I ask for evidence of how I'm wrong, no one provides anything of substance.
I said that you were cherry picking data, which you absolutely are. I also said you're in an echo chamber because that is literally what happens when you cherry pick data.
You responded by not responding to that at all and instead, assholishly, implied that I was a bot in an absolutely not clever way. Seriously, if you are going to imply someone is a bot, be more clever about it.
Not responding to this, cause fuck you, you don't get to be an asshole first and then try and be reasonable. I also won't fuck off. Not something you get to demand on a public forum.
This I will respond to: You're in an echo chamber because that is the end result of what happens when people cherry pick their data.
This is you cherry picking your data:
Finally, I'm not responding again. It is absolutely clear that nothing will change your mind, and that you will happily blame the left when Trump gets re-elected instead of where the blame should lie, Biden and his handlers. It's also clear that you're an asshole that argues in bad faith, so it is pointless to even talk to you.
What I'm seeing, is a lot of transparent excuses not to justify the beliefs that you keep criticizing me for not having.
There will be plenty of evidence on November 6th, but I'm sure you'll still be just as far in denial then as you are now.