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The transformation is complete
(lemmy.world)
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this post was submitted on 14 Aug 2024
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Idk, I'm pretty sure trump is gonna get at least fifty million votes in less than 3 months, probably closer to eighty million like last time. He's obviously a fascist piece of shit that's falling apart and frothing at the mouth, but he's still wildly popular with like 30% of voters, and like 40% of voters tend to not show up, flip a coin, or just go by name recognition. A shitload of people are not paying attention. This election will be really close, despite what an absolute dumpster fire that dingleberry incarnate is. I think it would be incredibly foolish to get too comfortable while so much is at stake. The guy is still threateningly popular with a large and passionate base, just like Elvis in his later years.
Both parties benefited enormously from universal mail in voting in 2020. But we ended that, so I suspect we're going to see participation crater as a result.
A lot of media is nakedly sensationalist and it causes people to tune out. Meanwhile, Trump isn't meaningfully more fascist than your average small town sheriff or groyper congressman.
He's going to win the base GOP just like every Republican does. But he's lost the insurgent rizz he enjoyed in 2016 and the "unbeatable" mystique from 2020. He's not really reinventing himself, either. Artists like Elvis, Cher, Madonna, and Sting had to do that a more than a few times to stay relevant.
I don't think watching Trump flame out will change any anti-Trump voter's behavior. He's too much of a heel. Liberals would love to run up the score on him.
But among conservatives? I think he's seeing attrition.
"Your average small town sheriff or groyper congressman" haven't tried to overthrow the rightful United States government and install themselves as a dictator. Trump has.
https://www.americanoversight.org/newsletter-constitutional-sheriffs-want-to-interfere-in-election-administration