probably closer to eighty million like last time

Both parties benefited enormously from universal mail in voting in 2020. But we ended that, so I suspect we're going to see participation crater as a result.

A shitload of people are not paying attention.

A lot of media is nakedly sensationalist and it causes people to tune out. Meanwhile, Trump isn't meaningfully more fascist than your average small town sheriff or groyper congressman.

He's going to win the base GOP just like every Republican does. But he's lost the insurgent rizz he enjoyed in 2016 and the "unbeatable" mystique from 2020. He's not really reinventing himself, either. Artists like Elvis, Cher, Madonna, and Sting had to do that a more than a few times to stay relevant.

I think it would be incredibly foolish to get too comfortable while so much is at stake

I don't think watching Trump flame out will change any anti-Trump voter's behavior. He's too much of a heel. Liberals would love to run up the score on him.

But among conservatives? I think he's seeing attrition.