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this post was submitted on 01 Oct 2024
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This is mainly a byproduct of transitioning to a war time economy. Before the mobilization they had a fairly large labour glut, now that they've geared to war time production they're having labor shortages.
The detrimental aspect to this transition is that they're going to have to rely on conscripts for their soldiers as they were already experiencing a really harsh population decline.
The most dangerous part of this whole war won't come for Russia until the war ends, regardless of victory or defeat. Their population decline coupled with the retooling of their domestic economy isn't something that can be undone without major consequences. So they're either going to have to continue the war footing to maintain their economy, or face an economic collapse similar in scope to the USSR.
Their economy is collapsing already, it's just not a quick collapse, but it's definitely already happening. National bank increased interest rate from 16 to 19% in a month, and the Ruble is still declining.
The economy is also declining, while at the same time overheating. (for instance worker shortage as you mention) The Russian economy cannot handle the strain of the war, and they can't keep the economy up by being at war.
Unfortunately, the collapse is very slow. Their national wealth fund is currently their bread basket, and that is maintained by their energy exports. With the price of oil being so high, they should be able to sustain their current economy for a couple years at least. There will be shortages, especially in areas where they were reliant on imports.
However, from what I've read, oil would have to drop to around $60 a barrel to spur an economic collapse swift and bad enough to make the war unsustainable. That or the EU and US would actually have to militaristically enforce the energy embargo.
That's how these types of collapses work though.
Everything just barely holds together and then the literally straw that breaks the camel's back hits and then it all goes to shit in an instant.
They're keeping it together but at what cost? We can clearly see the social and demographic cost that will hit in a decade, we can see the economic costs hitting but how long till that manifests into something they can't policy their way out of is a big question.
Russia is spending its future, both economically and demographically, and can’t avoid the consequences. But will those consequences hit them in time to help Ukraine?
Even if they are able to grind down Ukraine, can they really be hoping the Ukrainian economy will help Russia rebuild, after its bombed to hell and back?
Right now Brent Crude is just 71.28. Oil prices are going down.
Additionally Russia does not have the technical ability to fix all of the refineries that Ukraine has been blowing up nor do they have the ability to fix all of the upstream production problems being created.
Productions of raw products is dropping fastand those declines are going to both continue and accelerate.
O&G is not going to be propping up Russia's economy for much longer.
Yes, and as soon as it gets cold oil the price of oil will rise once again. It's not like countries are divesting from fossil fuels any time soon.
Russia isn't a technologically deprived nation, and they have one of the largest oil producing and refining operations in the world. They may not be able to repair the damages with imported parts as they would have 5 years ago, but refining tech isn't exactly a new science, or particularly complicated.
If you examine that chart for the year it seems bad, but if you just click on the scale of 5 years, it's pretty much just average. The important thing to look at is exports, which have been rapidly increasing.
I think that's a bit optimistic given that the West is hesitant to actually enforce the embargo, and are equally hesitant to divest from the fossil fuel sector.
We just don't have the spine to actually give an ultimatum of "you can do business with the US, or you can do business with Russia" to countries like India or China. That would be putting the interest of the nation and democracy in general, before the interest of private profit.
Unfortunately that’s the same threshold I’ve read for the US. Right now we’re way overproducing at the cost of the environment but I suppose it holds prices lower than otherwise. However US oil is generally more expensive processes, especially fracking, and supposedly not profitable when oil is under $60/bbl