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Kamala Harris gets Georgia boost as 120,000 new voters sign up
(www.newsweek.com)
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this post was submitted on 03 Oct 2024
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By what measure? As far as I've seen her campaign has been gaining more support and the polls (not facts, but the best metric to measure a campaigns success) are going more and more in her favor. If your criticisms are personal disagreements with the campaign, that's fine, but I don't think they are representative of the majority.
I'm not sure where you are getting:
When I check silver bulletin, her polling peaks around the convention and has dropped down since. She's lost ground in GA and NC since then.
It's not that she isn't "beating" Trump, it's that she's barely beating Trump, and not by the margins she needs to overcome structural disadvantages baked into the system. +15 in national polling for Dems is blow out territory, +10 is safe, +5 is barely overcoming structural disadvantages in the system. Harris is down from being in +5 territory and that simply isn't good enough.
Harris has left the biggest, most reliable group of voters on the table in an effort to gather "center right" voters and it's not working sufficiently to get her over the hump.
Lemmy has a penchant for self delusions in regards to how well candidates are doing and I see your response as another example of that. The reality is that Harris blew the real palpable momentum she had coming out of the convention and her strategy post convention has been a bit of a disaster. Where she is at right now isn't remotely good enough to overcome the structural biases that we all know exist in our electoral system. We also know there will be a Republican effort to deny or overturn the results. Harris needs a landslide victory to put this thing out of contention. Her post convention strategy has put her backwards from where she started and she has lost the upwards trajectory she had.
Looking at 538, I'm not sure where you're coming up with these notions. There was one time in the last two months where the gap closed some, but she's consistently been getting more support and slowly is widening the gap.
Thinking that's not good enough is valid, but claiming that her campaign has been a bummer where nationally she's been doing better is wrong. NC and GA have always been a tough battle, and it looks like in GA she has fallen some, it's all still within about a point and the swings haven't been significant.
I think your belief that Lemmy is full of self delusion is also bogus and that either your saying that in bad faith or we are just seeing things differently. Other than polling articles, which as established don't mean a whole lot, I haven't exactly read a lot of non critical pieces on her, and certainly none that are claiming she doing awesome. Hell, my comment just claimed that her campaign has been gaining more support, which I think it has, but you make it sound like I'm already crowning her or saying she's crushing it, when I didn't.
He's pretty looney. I'm looking at 538 too and his argument basically boils down to the polls don't reflect reality because there's inherent bias against Harris so she needs to break margin of error to truly win.
I'm not sure I buy this argument but I'm willing to bet 539 accounts for that...the thing is even if they don't EVERY SINGLE POLL on the 538 general election page has her winning.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
That page shows 18 different polls and even though they're within the margin of error not a single one goes for Donald Trump.
I'm checking silver bullets, Nate silvers blog.
538 isn't what it used to be. It had Biden winning when he was polling At 38%. You shouldn't rely on it.
He campaign has absolutely been a bummer and she's not winning this election at the moment. Lemmy has repeatedly gaslit itself into a delusional state around what is happening in reality and it seems to be happening again in regards to Kamala Harris performance. Gaslighting yourself at your own peril.
Lemmy is an echo chamber with mods who editorially filter the views they want to see. If you are relying on it for confirmation of your world view, you are in for a deep and upsetting shock. The perfect example of this was Biden, his performance, and his ability to win. Another even more recent example of this was Walzs performance in the debate (the question of if he won).
On polling, where we can actually have a conversation. Within the MOE is losing for a democratic candidate. Harris needs overwhelming numbers to account for existing and upcoming structural issues to the election. She doesn't have those, and her trajectory isn't up (like it was drying and immediately after the convention). It's going down, and that's terrible if you want to keep Trump out of office. It's because she's making the classic mistake Democrats always seem to make which is to start on the left but shift to the center.
Harris topped out in growing her support about 2 weeks after the convention and with every step to the right, she backslides further. If she continues the strategy she employed from the convention to now, she will 💯 lose this election.
I guess we're just going to have to disagree in this one.
I'm not sure what you take issue with but thats your business.