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this post was submitted on 04 Nov 2024
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TechTakes
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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The bad guys have definitely learned a new sort of trick. Haven't wrapped my head around it yet, but it is bad, innit?
Apologies for the screed:
Quick recap:
2016-2020: executive orders every day, non-elected positions being captured by conservatives, dems just hand-wringing and tweeting. but Dems get lucky with a pandemic and trump loses
2021-2024: weekend at biden’s.
Where was the election reform? The dismantling or reform of the electoral colleges? The extra seats on the SC? Bribing the public with stimulus packages to boost the economy?
Remember when we pushed Biden left? Remember when the dems preserved abortion rights, prevented the invasion of ukraine, and stopped bankrolling Israel’s genocide?
“exercise your democratic rights and voice by voting for our candidate that wasn’t democratically chosen as our candidate”. “vote blue and do not voice any critical thought”. “any vote that isn’t for the party that didn’t meaningfully reverse or prevent conservative actions is a vote for trump”.
In sum: the bad guys didn’t do anything new.
The closest we got to a trump loss was some republican spook who went to a trump rally with a gun because it was closer than the harris rally.
According to some reports the dems simply stayed home and he even lost votes compared to 2020
The thing that's most baffling to me is how the difference in ground game had zero impact. We were pounding the pavement, doors got fuckin knocked. The GOP did less than zero, firing their entire staff responsible for in-person outreach and gave 100 million to PACs run by grifters who put it directly into their own pockets.
Unless we've missed a trick, retail politics as it has existed is dead.
Dem talking heads spending so much energy courting moderate conservative votes was an excellent way to demobilise their base. They really gave their all to lose an election that should have been a free win.
I mean, I don't think it was unreasonable to expect liberals to show up against someone who's sole policy proposals were mass deportations and political reprisals, and so I can understand the logic of focusing on the center (which in US politics means center-right).
But this being the democratic party, they also couldn't commit to an actual narrative to make that play. Rather than "look at their ties to Big Tech!" or even sticking with "look how weird these people are!" they had to go hat-in-hand and stake themselves to divisive (to say nothing of abhorrent) policies because that's the only connection they could try to make. I think we're seeing a major problem with the whole "big tent" concept.
This wasn't a free win, however. The reason Harris took over in the first place was because Biden's performance in the debate was poor enough that the Democrats thought there was no longer any chance with him, and this was already with lowering approval ratings. Had he stayed, I bet Trump's victory would have been even wider.
Definitely, there was no coming back from that debate.
It was twitter. Elon Musk joins Trump's team. What happens? Harris' chances begin to drop.
Trump did lose support, but there was probably enough propaganda on Twitter to make enough people go "both sides" and just sit out the election.
and of course, Twitter and Facebook style influence campaigns work just as well or even better elsewhere, in communities that haven’t hardened themselves against that type of bullshit
2/3 of regular users don't use adblock, cambridge analytica may be disbanded as a company, but the approach they made still is a thing
Cambridge Analytica even came back from the dead, so that's still around.
(At least, I think? I'm not really sure what the surviving companies are like or what they were doing without Facebook's API)
this is the bad place
IDK, do you really think twitter still has that much cultural relevance? ugh
I'm sure it played a part, though.
facebook is still big somehow and i see no reason why shrimp jesus irradiated brains of boomer population would be not susceptible to it like it was still 2016
Ten years ago, I naively thought that people might grow a sort of mental callus against online bullshit. Big L for me! Turns out that there's no such thing as magical self-assembling media literacy.
Given that Trump lost votes compared to 2020, I think it's past the peak of its relevance. Not many new people are entering the self-referential echo chamber. It's one of the main vectors for crypto and meme stock scams, as well as the main vector for Musk himself. When all those promises are broken once again, fatigue will start to set in among the bluechecks. It may linger, but it will be a spent force by the end of the decade. Keep up social pressure to get people to leave.
I'm seeing some takes now that the ground game did make a difference of a couple of points in the swing states, where it was concentrated, it's just that that wasn't enough.
Not enough for the presidential race, sadly; perhaps enough to scrape by with a few Senate victories.
Here in TN, we had a monster grassroots door knocking/letter writing movent. We did manage to get a couple of rad women into the general assembly--with several heart-breakingly-close misses--but not nearly as many as we'd hoped, and the vile supermajority is still in place. Anecdotally, we are seeing the actual useful activists here getting radicalized rather than demotivated, which will be important re: surviving the present kakiclysm
Also, I'd just like to say I appreciate ya.