this post was submitted on 26 Jan 2025
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El Chisme
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i thought it was the 2008 election that made his career
2012 he called every state right and was the one saying that Republicans were being idiots "unskewing" the polls.
2016 he was the least wrong (gave Trump 30ish% odds on election day when NYT gave Trump 1%). Indeed he was "right" in the constant drumbeat on the podcast about probability (source: I listened) and Harry Enten also gets some credit there basically saying trump had the same odds as a NFL kicker hitting a FG from 50 something yards out.
Ironically, 2012 (the easier one) is the one that most libs coast him on even when 2016 was honestly more impressive imo.
He also got 2024 kind of right, saying Harris and Trump were tied statistically, but that his gut feeling said that Trump would win.
His analysis is actually quite good, it's just that he's an insufferable dork with terrible opinions outside of it. That is also true of many "experts" though.
Yeah. When Nate is just crunching numbers like the gambler he is, he's actually a solid source.
As soon as you move past numbers to why some policy might be good or not, that's when he's total trash.
That saddest part about this is that I got the same answer based on reading the temperature of my family and friends and just doing a gut check. Much less work.
08 was what created his career tho. 12 just cemented it
He definitely had some prominence after 08 but I'd say it wasn't until 16 when he was the only liberal to not say it would be a sweep for Hillary that he could just coast for the rest of his life.