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It would be amazing if the USA focused on defense on the expectation of invasion. Talk about a collosal waste of energy and focus.
I think the tarrifs have multiple goals. I think deflationary pressure is one. I think bargaining is another. But we agree that the goal is "restoring" or rather simple domestic capital investment.
The class antagonism problem is solved with xenophobia, scapegoats, and white supremacy - just like always.
I disagree that South America will rise alongside Africa. I think both will be susceptible to disruption by black ops. I think South America will be more susceptible than Africa. I hope I am wrong but I imagine part of the USA's lebensraum will be death squads, coups, and assassinations throughout South America to prevent any sort of hemispheric threat from emerging.
I think between deleting things like USAid and a growing domestic "terror" problem the US will need to reinvest in domestic cointelpro style projects. I think the working class right isn't fully aligned with the drivers behind this current federal crisis. The eggs are about to get more expensive, and that's a problem. The deflections are not going to work if they're all done at the same time like what is happening now.
Our current efforts in destabilizing our enemies are failing, and we needed to rely heavily on allies to achieve any of it, dragging them down with us. They are facing a similar problem as the US. Their fascist rise is born out of similar contradictions.
There is a reason why the Trump administration is pushing for NATO to be less reliant on US funds and it is because they want to exit NATO, likely because they know we can't keep production up in the near term to meet defense needs. The chip conflict with China is only worsens this reality. They could make the importing of that technology for these advanced tech systems the DoD wants to build incredibly painful.
I wouldn't be shocked to see a "Starwars" like project out of this administration, just like Reagan. This time built by SpaceX using what we know about the iron dome. A good way to dump cash into private industry. Its not yet clear to me that the AI sector is going to recover and I'll bet we see the Stargate project axed in favor of something that's less of a bubble a defense aligned.
All this to say, it's going to be hard to exert foreign influence if we're facing major crisis at home. Our allies are going to be dealing with similar unrest.
Also I'm mostly talking out my ass here. I could be fully wrong about all this. It is interesting to speculate about, but it's more an exercise in figuring out how fucked we are.
I think this is a deeply inaccurate analysis. NATO is a transnational nuclear military that has functioning logistics networks, trained command structure and soldiers, and masses of material deployed all the way across Europe. Napoleon and Hitler spent so much blood and treasure to have a tiny fraction of the positioning that NATO has. The US will NEVER give up NATO.
The reason the Trump administration is pushing for NATO to be less reliant on US funds is because they want Europe to develop their own military AND transfer some of their treasury to the USA through weapons deals.
I would, because I don't see the current situation like a USA vs USSR situation. I see this situation a lot closer to Germany vs USSR right now.