this post was submitted on 04 Feb 2025
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Whether we like it or not, it is a fact that the collapse of the American system is not a linear decline but a transformation of accumulated quantitative failures into a qualitatively new phase of irreversible crisis. Decades of neglected contradictions have now reached a critical mass threatening to overwhelm the system’s capacity to function.
For years, the US has deferred addressing foundational issues, treating them as isolated problems rather than interconnected symptoms of a failing system. Some examples include stagnant wages, over a trillion in student debt, and over half of households living paycheck to paycheck. The American Society of Civil Engineers gives US infrastructure a C- rating, with failures like the 2021 Texas power grid collapse becoming increasingly common. Life expectancy continues to decline, and there's a mental health crisis exacerbated by privatized healthcare. Public schools are severely underfunded, and so on. Meanwhile, prison and military budgets continue to balloon. These are not discrete issues but compounding stressors that amplify each other.
It seems that the convergence of these problems has finally passed a threshold where the whole becomes greater than the sum of its parts. Corporate profiteering and wage stagnation render basic needs like housing and healthcare unaffordable. Trust in government is at historic lows as a result of the standard of living collapsing. Polarization and alienation drive far-right radicalization, while mutual aid networks attempt to replace state support.
This is no longer business as usual, it's a phase change where the contradictions of the system can no longer be contained by reforms or rhetoric. The qualitative shift triggers a feedback loop that causes disintegration to continue to accelerate. Opportunists like Biden and Trump exploit desperation, channelling rage into nihilistic policies that deepen inequality. The Jan 6 riots show that large numbers of people increasingly see the whole system as being illegitimate. Meanwhile, corporations continue to double down on exploitation, union busting, and tax evasion that further immiserate the working class. The "solutions" that the policy makers come up with, like austerity and increased privatization, only worsen these problems.
I'd argue that the US has reached a point of no return. Unlike past crises like 2008 recession or stagflation in the 70s, there is no New Deal or neoliberal pivot that can restore stability. The scale of collapse requires radical restructuring, which the capitalist system is structurally incapable of delivering.
The empire is in a terminal phase where collapse fuels further collapse. The only exit is fundamental change that requires dismantling of the capitalist order. The transformation from quantity to quality is complete, what emerges next depends on who seizes the moment.
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Which makes me think a pivot to the gloved fist and truncheon is more likely. A pivot to what might be called fascism and a dropping of the facade of liberal democracy.
It may very well be that they've decided that the charade of liberal democracy cannot sustain them much longer so perhaps we'll get permanent locking out of Democrats from power so corralled progressives in the US will be discontent but shrug it off as a dictatorship they can't do much about while the hooting chuds of the Republican party, the proud reactionaries will celebrate and be happy to step up to use violence to maintain this hold even as conditions worsen because they have that Protestant Slave Mentality (falsely called a "work ethic") and thus allow the bourgeoisie to cling on to power longer.
It's a move of desperation obviously but I think in a reactionary place like the US with such low class consciousness combined with the historical high of power of all natures (military violence, finance, domestic/international spying, etc) that they could keep such an naked reactionary dictatorship going longer than the ~10 years the Nazis held power.
Fascism does allow the radicalization to be directed towards maintaining capital and empire and sadly with how reactionary many young people, especially young men in the west are becoming in our alienating, atomized society I think that's probably the way things go in the US and those people will hold true to such a decaying order and can keep the US under their boot for several decades.
I think it's too early to tell which way things go right now. Mask off fascism is certainly a possibility and a lot of the same trends that happened in Germany in the 30s, such as union busting, jailing labor organizers, and so on, could certainly be on the table.