this post was submitted on 16 Mar 2025
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The Trump admin is not serious about raproachment with Russia and there is no master plan (lemmygrad.ml)
submitted 3 months ago by Sodium_nitride@lemmygrad.ml to c/genzedong@lemmygrad.ml
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Many people seem to keep making the mistake of taking Trump's words at face value. This is partly the fault of the media, which hangs onto everything he says because he is their golden goose. Furthermore, there is the desire to keep finding some kind of logic in Trump's actions.

The problem is, we keep projecting our own logic onto the Trump admin. We think, "what would we do if we were American imperialists?" Which leads us, and many analysts (like yanis) to think about the Trump admin as if they were cavalry reinforcements arriving unexpectedly in the darkest hour of western imperialism to save it.

In reality, the Trump admin simply wants to impose unequal trade treaties on his allies and get them to spend more on weapons. His fearmongering and negging is his style of salesmanship.

The fact that the Trump admin keeps flip flopping on tariffs, resumed military aid to Ukraine, tried to pull that stunt with the "30 day ceasefire" (in ukraine) and the ceasefire in Palestine has broken down all show that the Trump administration has as much of a master plan as a shitty SV startup trying to attract VC funding.

What worries me is that the Europeans are falling for this con a second time! Trump literally did the same shit in his first term and got the euros to up their NATO spending! The fact that the Europeans can't even act in self interest or see through the tactics of a used car salesman is horrifying to see in first person. These people have nukes.

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[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 7 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I think Trump genuinely understands that the war is a sunk cost, and on top of it he knows that it's going to be an Albatross around his neck if he doesn't end it. You don't need to be a genius to realize that ending it as quickly as possible is the best course of action. Furthermore, the rapprochement with Russia will allow him to divert resources to Asia which is where the US sees a real threat now. In the grand scheme of things , Europe is just not that important anymore from the US perspective. Another aspect here is that there seems to be a belief amongst the republicans that Russia is a white christian nations and they can somehow unite over that to take on China.

Meanwhile, Europe is in a deep panic over the fact that the US will no longer be there, and they will have to deal with Russia on their own. This of course plays into Trump's hands as well, as it's necessarily going to mean a lot of military contracts going forward.

I expect that either the US and Russia work something out, which I think is most likely, or the US will simply bail on Ukraine and cut their losses. The reality is that the US is unable to keep the war going much longer materially, and unlike the Europeans, they actually acknowledge this fact.

[–] Sodium_nitride@lemmygrad.ml 6 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I think Trump genuinely understands that the war is a sunk cost, and on top of it he knows that it’s going to be an Albatross around his neck if he doesn’t end it.

I don't think it matters what Trump's genuine beliefs are or aren't. His administration's ability to execute his plans is severely lacking, that's even assuming that his words line up with what the admin wants behind closed doors.

Furthermore, the rapprochement with Russia will allow him to divert resources to Asia which is where the US sees a real threat now. In the grand scheme of things, Europe is just not that important anymore from the US perspective.

I think it will prove to be much more difficult to divest from Europe than people are expecting, and that like most of Trump's gambits, his admin will half ass it and call it a day.

The amount of American capital invested into Europe is staggering. The UK alone has more American FDI than the entirety of the south-east Asia (including China). US corporations also store 64% of their foreign assets in Europe. My point is that America cannot actually divest from Europe. It has to maintain a hard power and soft power presence in the continent to safeguard its capital. If Europe starts buying large quantities of American weapons (as Trump wants them to), it only strengthens American interest in the region.

I expect that either the US and Russia work something out, which I think is most likely, or the US will simply bail on Ukraine and cut their losses. The reality is that the US is unable to keep the war going much longer materially, and unlike the Europeans, they actually acknowledge this fact.

Well, the Americans and Russians will have to work something out at some point to end the war.

[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 5 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I don’t think it matters what Trump’s genuine beliefs are or aren’t. His administration’s ability to execute his plans is severely lacking, that’s even assuming that his words line up with what the admin wants behind closed doors.

I don't see how his plans are lacking actually. They've already established dialogue with Russia. It's going well both according to the US and Russia. Seems to me that there's a very good chance they will come to an agreement this year.

I think it will prove to be much more difficult to divest from Europe than people are expecting, and that like most of Trump’s gambits, his admin will half ass it and call it a day.

Ruining the relations with Europe could be part of the strategy here. He can create such a hostile environment that companies will have no choice but to divest. The tariff war certainly seems to be moving in that direction right now.

It has to maintain a hard power and soft power presence in the continent to safeguard its capital. If Europe starts buying large quantities of American weapons (as Trump wants them to), it only strengthens American interest in the region.

I disagree here. Whom do they need hard power against if they normalize relations with Russia exactly? Meanwhile, the soft power strategy appears to be to try and break the EU, then support right wing parties that are US aligned. This also aligns with the tariff strategy incidentally. Trump policy tends to be very blunt, and that's precisely what we're seeing here.

Well, the Americans and Russians will have to work something out at some point to end the war.

Right, and once that happens, the US can pull back a lot of the assets they have committed to Europe currently.

[–] Sodium_nitride@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I don’t see how his plans are lacking actually. They’ve already established dialogue with Russia. It’s going well both according to the US and Russia. Seems to me that there’s a very good chance they will come to an agreement this year.

I agree that the end of the war will be negotiated by the Trump admin, and likely this year, since the AFU can'thold out much longer. Certainly, his relationship with Russia is much better than Biden's, but tbh that's a very low bar to clear.

When I say that Trump's plans are lacking, I am referring to his overall geopolitical strategy. I might have missed out on some development that happened recently since I haven't kept up with the news this week, or maybe I just don't see the big picture yet.

Ruining the relations with Europe could be part of the strategy here.

This is a possibility, I'll keep an eye on it.

Whom do they need hard power against if they normalize relations with Russia exactly?

They will need some level of hard power maintained in europe to pressure any European government or left-wing movement against doing things that will harm American investments. They will need hard power to defend against the ruse of such movements to begin with. I don't think it's far fetched to assume that the Trump admin is aware of the possibility of large scale populist upheavals in Europe bringing harm to American assets. Especially with climate change and nationalist sentiments intensifying.

That's in the optimistic scenario that relations with Russia are fully normalised. Although I suppose in a full divestment scenario none of this is necessary.

[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 3 points 3 months ago

When I say that Trump’s plans are lacking, I am referring to his overall geopolitical strategy. I might have missed out on some development that happened recently since I haven’t kept up with the news this week, or maybe I just don’t see the big picture yet.

Oh yeah, I very much agree there. I expect that the end result will be that the west is in a complete disarray, while BRICS is going to be significantly strengthened. The US will almost certainly find itself in a much weaker position than it is today.

They will need some level of hard power maintained in europe to pressure any European government or left-wing movement against doing things that will harm American investments.

It seems like the plan there is to just fund domestic fascists and outsource the work to them.