Or perhaps the end of the beginning, if you're a little more pessimistic.
Image is from this Bloomberg article, from which I also gathered some of the information used in the preamble.
While Trump was off in the Middle East in an incompetent attempt to solve a geopolitical and humanitarian crisis, China has been doing something much more productive.
Chinese officials, including Xi Jinping, had a summit with CELAC (a community of 33 Latin American and Caribbean countries). There, he promised investment, various declarations of friendship, and visa-free entry for 30 days for citizens of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru and Uruguay. Lula signed over 30 agreements with China. Colombia is joining the New Development Bank and hopes to gain the money for a 120-kilometer railway connecting the Atlantic and Pacific coasts as an alternative route to the Panama Canal. Even Argentina, ruled by arch-libertarian and arch-dipshit (but I repeat myself) Milei, was uncharacteristically polite with China as he secured a currency swap renewal to shore up their international reserves.
It wouldn't really be correct to say that Latin America is "siding with China over the US" - leaders in the region will continue to make many deals with America for the foreseeable future, and even Trump's bizarre economic strongman routine won't make them break off economic and diplomatic relations. What's significant here is that despite increasing American pressure for those leaders to break off all ties with China, few appear to be listening - and given that China is perhaps the most important economy on the planet right now, that is a very predictable outcome.
As the current American empire takes actions to try and avoid their doom, those very actions only guarantee it. As Latin America grows ever more interconnected with China and continues to develop, America will grow ever more panicked and demanding, and this feedback loop will - eventually - result in the death of the Monroe Doctrine.
Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

So with China apparently experiencing the greatest surge in household consumption the world has ever seen over the last 1-2 decades and being the biggest consumer market in the world for most goods, already outperforming in per capita sales of goods any other remotely comperable in income level country, how much faster should consumption be growing for China to solve all those oh so terminal weak consumption problems? Should consumption have been growning at double the rate of gdp somehow? Should they, on a per capita basis, already be consuming near level of the average american somehow instead of idk 60% as much? Should they be eating more , buying more cars and smartphones? They are already the largest market by far of just about any product (cars, phones, appliances, furniture, luxury etc) so should they be that by multipliers of 2-3 or 5 already?
Or should they aspire to spend similar amount of money on rent and healthcare on average to catch up ?After all Chinese household consumption numbers usualy come in at levels similar to retail sales, while household consumption in the US is ~2-3x retail sales. Thats because not only ar services (largely rent, healthcare and education) a much larger burden for the american and western consumer but they are also (mis)calculated completely differenty in the chinese national accounting system which is still of leninist origin leading to these numbers above been undercounts funnily enough for china, as are ultimetaly the usualy circulated very low numbers of consumption as a % of GDP. For that and other factors uniqe to China, apples-to-apples, China’s household consumption share is probably 50-55% of GDP, only a bit lower than world average.
Even so ,Is the CPC neoliberaly holding down Chinese household consumption by having it grow only 2+ times as fast as any other country over the years instead of uhhh 4 times ? Where should and would those numbers in those graphs be if not for the missmanagement of Chinas consumer economy by the CPC? At 300% ? At what level should and chinese HH consumption be for it to become a "consumer country" or whatever ?
We’ve been through this before, none of this means anything without taking into account the role of debt.
Household debt leverage of US vs China vs Japan (debt to disposable income ratio)
US = purple, China = red, Japan = brown
Notice that China’s household debt leverage had exceeded that of US and Japan around 2018-2019. It matches perfectly with the charts you’re showing there, which used the change from 2008 as the starting point.
So, there is nothing unusual about China’s increasing consumption when people can afford to take on more debt i.e. when the economy is good. However, with exports being stifled by potential tariffs, when over-investments in property market imploding, with local governments saddled with unprecedented debt, it becomes inevitable that consumption becomes the only channel for where the economy must flow (if you’ve been reading anything I’ve written before, you know the drill).
The government knows this, that’s why for the first time, they have been prioritizing consumption as a national priority, and many subsidies have been given out to promote consumption.
However, as can be seen from the latest CPI data, we’re still having deflation:
So, the question is: how can we have deflation if consumption is indeed, as you said, been rising? It doesn’t even pass the smell test.
And we all know that a deflationary spiral is bad - much worse than inflation, and why the government is doing all it can to try to promote consumption.
Furthermore, unemployment has gone up - especially youth unemployment (see below).
Urban unemployment as of March 2025:
Compare March 2025 with December 2024:
Total unemployment: 5.2% <- 5.1%
Age 15-24 (non-students): 16.5% <- 15.7%
Age 25-29 (non-students): 7.2% <- 6.6%
Age 30-59 (non-students): 4.1% <- 3.9%
Once again, the growth in the economy, if true, does not match the unemployment data.
As I have said before, China cannot subsidize its way out of the consumption problem. Because the real problem - the elephant in the room that nobody wants to address - is wealth inequality.
When trade revenues are good, when investments in property and stock markets are booming, one can easily paper over the wealth inequality problem, because everyone seems to be getting wealthier, we have millions and millions of people being lifted out of poverty.
But now that exports and investment can no longer sustain economic growth, and when consumption has to take up the role of economic driver, all the ills of wealth inequality now begin to manifest themselves.
How do Chinese households borrow to consume if both their savings growth, their income growth and the consumption growth have been onsistently larger than HH debt growth at every single quarter over the years. HH debt can also be a bunch of things not related to most aspects of consumption so unless we have some ready to go data we cant know where that debt went and its a huge leap to call China's consumption growth "debt fueled". Like HH have to borrow to be able consume but also HH savings are at the same time growing faster and higher than HH debt ? They get in debt to be able to sustain their consumption but also they are able save up more than the debt they get into ? Bank Deposits and savings are above bank lending for years and years. Doesnt pass the smell test.You are either in the red or the black. Either household save too much and don’t spend enough or they’re underwater and struggling with debt. Those are mutually exclusive conditions and its obvious towards what side chinese HHs fall.
The debt figures you posted are ultimately a function of the nominal aggregated debt figure and tell us absolutely nothing about how distressed the average household balance sheet is and if and for what reason they have debt and if that debt is used for everyday consumption (its not), especially given the income and regional inequalities in China in the last decade, and the economic activity of different groups. To begin with the majority of that debt increase is housing mortgages, chinese HHs of course arent getting into debt to consume everyday goods thats ridiculous , and as such to make any claim about the average chinese household being distressed or struggling with debt from that angle you have to find data about the % of chinese HH exposed fo mortgages, on what terms these are and how and when their monthly /annual payments are made and how they compare to their income, savings etc. I have seen no data points that indicate that the average chinese household actualy struggles with mortgages and mortgage payments, putting them in the red or curtailing consumption in any significant way.
As Its much more likely that upper middle class housholds and individuals leveraged too much on the property market and speculation (irregardless of their returns) and on the average household level i would imagine most debt figures have accumulated from the explosion of car purchases, housing and payments that foundementaly add a bunch to HH debt calculation no matter how healthy peoples balance sheet is. So Its less of an issue if HH debt going up mostly as a function of mortgage penetration for higher income earners but not coming at the expense of savings or consumption (but also not financing those things) for the average houshold. So most of the "houshold debt" data behind the graph becomes irrelevant to the discussion. Bottom line is that no, chinese households arent going into debt to consume things by any margin so all of the questions i layed out remain
Regarding overall deflation of course China wants it to be at like 1% instead of -0.2% to 0.2 or whatever. But it would be an issue if and when the main deflationary trends in China stop being Real estate, Cars (EVs in particular) and some food items that historicaly have cyclical inflation and deflation trends. And until there is some actual sustained deflation across sectors and goods. We know about the real estate issues so this isnt news and deflation wise it has been pretty predictable for the past year. But the other two arent caused or combined with weakened demand, the opposite really.
Deflation in sectors or products that are caused by increased supply , productivity, competition or cheaper and more abundant imputs (labour, emergy or indermediate goods like oil) isnt really connected to any deflationary spiral or crises. Especially when consuption and sales in said products or sectors improve or remain high. Auto prices are falling in China due to rising productivity, cheap as shit imputs and vertical intergration and ferocious competition among automakers and also are combined with very healthy and increased sales and demand, and that’s a good thing.Ultimately data shows most of the deflation outside of property is being supply driven and not from demand collapse
They have been running this extremely low deflationary - zero inflation economy for years now. If this were a spiral dynamic we would be seeing massive production curtailment already and neither aggregate wage or consumption data would be showing growth. The level of impact for a spiral can’t be masked. Deflationary spirals are not slow moving phenomena because their fundamental mechanism is via a liquidity shock. A year should be more than enough to rule out any deflationary spiral happening
This is just plain wrong:
The last time China had a deflation was during the mid-1990s economic crisis (overproduction crisis) that followed a very high CPI where tens of millions of people lost their jobs. Since joining the WTO and opening up its market to the world, China has been steadily maintaining its CPI at ~2% until the post-Zero Covid opening i.e. the last two years.
No offense, you write long paragraphs and I enjoy reading them and like discussing them with you, but a lot of those do not correspond to reality.
They should work less and produce less stuff for outside piggies
We can work less but at the same time also reallocate the labor and resources toward providing robust social welfare and support for the working people.
Once people feel that they no longer have to hoard savings because loss income from unemployment can be easily replenished from robust social safety nets and helping them to find new jobs, they’ll spend and consume more, which stimulates the economy and creates more jobs, solving the unemployment problem itself.
To be honest I just think that in the short history of US hegemony there's been a massive political hazard when engaging in consumption led growth. The moment your country is unable to finance itself the US swoops in and seizes everything like a vulture. Sure, with export oriented growth means you're dependent on the US for its financial system and debt driven consumption. The hazard isn't gone there either. But go back 40-50 years in time and every peripheric developmentist country was permanently crippled by the US Fed. As bad as things have gotten for the likes of Japan and South Korea, they haven't devolved into Brazil or Turkey - which, for that matter, are two best case scenarios.
China at one point looked up towards the developmentist third world. It is now looking down on them and asking what went wrong.
The double circulation strategy is something the chinese government has talked about directly. So it is something that they are doing. But, medium term, they also have to slowly wean themselves off a western led finance, banking and trade system first. With the way things are set up now, the US gets the short end of the stick of any trade war against China. If things are progressing further, why rock the boat and risk changing that calculus?
The Dual Circulation Strategy was proposed in 2020 after Trump’s 2018 trade war, in order to balance both domestic consumption and external trade.
It is all but considered a failure now, with 2024 ending in record $1 trillion trade surplus and a deflationary CPI. In other words, reliance on export has since gone up, and domestic consumption remains vastly inadequate to drive growth at home.
I really think Covid (which hastened the property price falling) screwed a lot of things up.
No no the MMTers demands endless growth and GDP explosion and MORE CONSUMPTION MORE CONSUMPTION. China cannot be communist until it CONSOOOOMS
To be fair here Chinese consumption especially post covid has some modest room to rebound and pick up still but beyond that im just looking at the numberinos and the big beautiful graphs and wondering how can a dominant economic narrative regarding China be that they are actually notably underperforming as a consumer market and even that underpeformance is consciously engineered and sustained by the cpc. How much more vertical do people think these graphs could or can go with mmt or other magic that the neolib xi refuses to do.
MMTers don't demand that at all. Exports increases the GDP in fact, even though the country is giving goods/services to rest of the world it could've consumed itself. GDP is Consumption+Investment+Govt Spending+Net Exports. MMTers are against exports for the sake of exports or exports as merely a way to stimulate domestic economy.
The solution is increased Government spending. Make healthcare free, a basic universal job guarantee, decrease income/wealth inequality through taxes (which could reduce consumption by the top 10%) and spending targeted towards the bottom. A rise in consumption and reduction in net exports will be the natural result as people (the majority, bottom 50%) get wealthier. Private indebtedness will also decrease as debt servicing becomes easier, people may take on less debt as % of their income.
Wealth/income inequality is the biggest danger for any country. That curve needs to be inverted. article
Healthcare access, affordability and quality is constantly and consistently improving for the average Chinese person and is comfortably better than any remotely comparable country in income/wealth per capita. People should understand that you cant magically get the left end of the income distribution in a middle income country to attain welfare outcomes of a high income socdems country’s middle class with redistribution policy. Its not neoliberalism to say that they will get there even under a socialist government by YoY progress relative to the rate of the country's development. China even now after all this absurd growth is still lagging the US or advanced European countries in GDP per capita (PPP or not) compared to how the USSR and other AES was positioned for most of the cold war. (40-60% for China vs 60-80% or above for the USSR in PPP terms). Even if China went full Soviet right now its welfare state redistributionary policies would be weaker for the average person compared to euro social democracies than the USSR's were compared to its contemporary social democracies.
Also fact is that Inequality in China HAS been consistently dropping for a decade+ now. Income inequality specificaly. And in China more so than in other countries inequality figures and changes ( as well as welfare access and quality) is a math problem driven by the rural-urban divide and rate of urbanisation. Inequality surged in the reform era as commercial opportunities exploded in urban China. The urban/rural income ratio was on a fast upward trend. As urbanization passed the 50% mark, China suppressed continued population growth in first-tier cities, pushing growth into second-and third-tier cities, thus evening out economic discrepancies between provinces. Since 2010, China’s Gini coefficient has been steadily falling. At around the same time, as the countryside emptied out, farm consolidation and mechanization resulted in rural incomes outgrowing urban incomes
During the GFC China was like was only 48% urbanized (versus 65% today). Would China have been better off focusing on building out a nordic level safety net? Did the neolib CPC not want better healthcare for the masses and instead for whatever reason diverted resources to corrupt and inefficient state-owned construction companies? Of course not, its obvious that urbanization and massive infastructure building would achieve much more bang for the buck regarding welfare outcomes given just how rural China still was than trying to build an advanced social safety net at like 6k GDP per capita. Urban disposable income was over three times rural levels in 2008. No amount of redistribution could ever give households more spending power and better welfare outcomes than focusing in turning rural workers into urban ones and upgrading infastructure in rural and urban areas alike. And again China’s 65% urbanization today is where Japan, the EU and South Korea were in 1962, 1973 and 1985, respectively. Still ways to go . The welfare outcome juice left in urbanization and investment and infasrtucture building is still where the most potential is. China diverted most of its capital to manufacturing and infrastructure rather than welfare programs over the last 10-15 years not because they didnt want better welfare outcomes for households for but because that was and is still the best way to achieve them. And no neither China nor any other country at a similar level of development had and has enough capital, money and labour to focus on both these redistributive approches at remotely to the same degree
Also over the past two decades, investment as a percentage of GDP has been far higher in inland provinces. Only one of the top ten fastest-growing provinces in the past decade (Fujian) has been coastal and none in the past two decades. So yeah if you’re in the 40-50% of China that is fully developed, the social safety net is on par with advanced nations. If you’re not, achieving modern social safety net merely a function of time regarding urbanization, development of lower tier cities and Houku reform and you are banking on current trajectories and the CPC getting you there. But it will happen in the controled way CPC has handled it till now. And to touch on that. Hukou reform, or lack thereof, is also a favorite hobby for China contrarians. With the huge gap in incomes and social services and nets between rural and urban china, if you just could go from a rural bumfuck town to Shanghai expecting access to all that it would have been a disaster for Chinese development. The costs of unregulated population concentration of hundreds of millions in megacities and the need for the walfare state to accomodate that in the span of 1-2 decades are rarely addressed. The hukou system has helped China avoid the slums that plague cities across the Global South. Everything you see in Brazil, Indonesia, India etc would have been an order of magnitude worse if there wasnt the oh so unfair and anti-socialist Hukou system in place. Through sequenced hukou reform, China has grown “medium-sized” cities – those with populations between 2 and 6 million – while keeping a lid on megacities with populations over 15 million.
So in making sense of Chinese "welfare" focus and policies you have to recognize that if you can get bigger increases in income and welfare outcomes by funding infrastructure and keeping shit cheap (forcufully price wise or with supply & productivity rump up) than with redistribution from a thin top layer of high income tax payers the former is the more efficient welfare policy choice and thats the position China has been and is still. Per capita production expansion does far more than focusing on social safety net redistribution at China’s development level. Welfare redistribution can ease some hardships but it won’t integrate poorer regions and lower classes of a billion people into productive economic activity and high standards of living and ultimately you cannot support consumption of what you don’t make. If the pie isn’t big enough splitting it creatively won’t fill everyone. The vast majority of the country that would most benefit from income and wealth transfers need transfers of production factors first, not transfers of consumption. So right now China is engaging in extensive redistribution from the rich to the poor. That redistribution comes in the form of state owned financial system taking capital gains from growth to try to build those production factors in the places where most low income people are. All the infastructure China has been purring money to without end in EVERY province and all the production and manufacturing power and "oversupply" keeping goods and services cheap IS redistributionary welfare policy, a much more effective one for China's strengths and levels of development at this point with much higher multipliers. It is the reason the average Chinese has seen their welfare get better much more so than any worker in any developing country. Its one of the more pro-social redistributive-oriented economic regimes the world has seen. Its pre-distributional vs post-distributional welfare economics. In simple terms its capex socialism.
HSR alone for example is one of the biggest walfare projects of modern times in the world. Chinese people at this point have access to travel of any length more expansively AND affordably than pretty much any other population in countries of any significant size. Distributed urban development (that evens out welfare outcomes) through HSR buildout is a complete re-engineering of physical China on a level that makes economistic arguments irrelevant.
What ppl looking for lessons on socialist construction, especially in developing countries should take away from China is that the government can intervene in a variety of ways to ensure goods and services stay cheap and to equalize welfare outcomes and not necessary to rely mostly on welfare payments and transfers and in fact depending on a country's strengths and level of development its not even the right choice. Prioritizing money & tax redistribution only makes sense when you have a rich and large enough middle and upper class relative to the rest of the population. And even still direct welfare spending HAS increased over the last decade as a % of GDP in almost every sector (education, healthcare). It pretty much doubled for healthcare and its now on the lower end of european countries. Who's to say that in 10-15 years China wouldnt overtake in healthcare spending european social democracies in their peak?
Graphs time
You are using World Bank’s Gini Coefficient for China, which used consumption data instead of income data for its calculation for certain developing countries including China. This skews the metric towards the lower end. For the developed countries, income data were used, and appeared higher in comparison.
The National Bureau of Statistics have a more complete dataset that relies on the income distribution and came up with more accurate reflection of wealth inequality:
Blue = Gini coefficient (World Bank)
Orange = Gini coefficient (National Bureau of Statistics, PRC)
Income Gini coefficient from the National Bureau of Statistics:
Note that data points after 2022 are missing from the graph, and the data is 0.465 for both 2023 and 2024.
We will see if they change anything in 15 years. Will China have universal Healthcare by then? Or a right to employment program which puts pressure on the private sector to improve their own working conditions (at the least)? I feel like they'll put it off for yet another 15 years after that. But maybe they'll wow me. Hopefully people aren't working 60-70 hrs a week retiring at 63 in the year 2060.
Such a shame we have no example of an alternate country of similar size doing similar policies. Eg. India is a country which has neither built up productive forces nor has any welfare for the majority.
Edit: I think within India, Kerala is a decent example, though not a perfect comparison, it has limited autonomy, has very low fiscal space, there have been times when liberals (who were notoriously corrupt) were in power. But still, they have made good use of what they have. People have healthcare, education, many welfare schemes all while building infrastructure. Some would say it's because they have a large diaspora which brings in money from abroad, that's true, but how you make use of that is also important.
As much as you are welcome to critique MMT, it still charts a course for developing countries toward establishing self-sufficiency.
This is in stark contrast to the IMF “export led growth” model that developing countries must use their labor and resources to produce cheap goods for Westerners to consume, giving up their own economic sovereignty.
For someone who is so ardently anti-imperialist, you seem to love doubling down on letting Western imperialist countries enjoying cheap goods made from exploited labor in the Global South, while knocking ideas that actually help developing countries to gain the strength to resist Western imperialism.