this post was submitted on 23 Jun 2025
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Bulletins and News Discussion from June 23rd to June 29th, 2025 - Iran, Harden Your Deep Military Sites
(hexbear.net)
Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.
A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?
And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?
Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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~~I'd like to think that this ceasefire will work in Iran's favor. Iran's number one goal is, or definitely SHOULD be, creating or otherwise obtaining functional nuclear weapons. I imagine that's significantly easier to do when you aren't under bombardment. yes, I am disappointed that tel aviv hasn't been flattened yet, but the goal has to be obtaining nuclear arms. even if the supposed ceasefire only lasts a few weeks, I'm sure that time is sorely needed to focus efforts on nuke acquisition.~~
~~I'm not on board the nothing ever happens train, I still think things are happening and the ceasefire will inevitably be broken, because it's an Israeli ceasefire, it goes without saying. I will also say~~ I am a dumb krakkker amerikan ~~sitting comfy in my armchair saying "hmmm yes, of course, masterful gambit etc etc" while refreshing the news mega, so who really knows.~~
EDIT: lmao should've seen that coming
I think their number one goal should be purchasing thousands of medium and long range anti-air systems and electronic warfare systems from China and transporting into the country and training their troops on their use. This has proven to be more important than nukes. If they need to give them a good deal on oil or something to do it, then they should do so.
They still need the nukes to deter Israel/USA from using nukes against them. However, that will probably come later along. Short term goal needs to be defense against jets ASAP.
Their number two goal needs to be rooting out all the mossad spies and traitors embedded throughout the country, confiscating all of their stashed weaponry and explosives and setting up networks of checkpoints to inspect trucks.
I also think there is a small chance(20%) that China will not sell.
My reason is its possible China doesn't want to see their weapon systems in actual combat against the US in order to avoid giving away intel and valuable data.
A point to support this is all the media frenzy over how the India-Pakistan skirmish had "proven" the capabilities of Chinese systems. You may well argue they don't want the US to see anything more than they have already so they can maintain an element of surprise.
Second point is the intelligence gathering and experience from Ukraine is definitely trickling down to Israel and the US, everything Ukraine does is already coordinated with US intelligence etc and all these Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian systems is a new lesson on how the Russians and their export customers would react. So its a good point consider China doesn't want Iran to become their Ukraine i.e a classroom on how to beat Chinese systems.
That said I believe this is an outlandish theory, probably not true if Iran does seriously make an offer they would likely sell. However I wouldn't be surprised. It is more consistent with their non-interventionism etc...
They wont sell their most modern systems but they have a bajillion good enough systems which at scale would make a difference. No matter iran should get its head out of its ass , do a Zelensky and beg and ask for anything and everything, giving up whatever is needed . They will get something
DPRK. They should get them from the DPRK. Russia has a defense pact with the DPRK who has been sending them tons of shells for their war. The DPRK should be able to purchase s-400 systems at least and re-ship them to Iran if Russia doesn't raise a big stink about it.
s-400 are already sold to various countries. Russia already has deployed s-500 systems themselves against Ukraine and s-600 has been developed and is being fine-tuned. So it's not top of the line and no defense secrets are leaked most likely.
I have a doubt this will ever be possible to a meaningful degree. They have a contradiction, a very disagreeable one between hardline religious fundamentalists that most ethnic-religious minorities and a huge number of Shia dislike as too conservative, reactionary, and repressive and the liberal reformers whose domestic policy reforms of maybe allow women to show some hair and don't sick the religious morality police on young people dancing to music are very popular BUT who are naive and gullible towards the west and keep getting owned in foreign policy decisions. The liberals get in power and disgruntled hardliners may leak to make them look weak to get back their religious fundamentalist power over their people. Hardliners in power = disgruntled liberals, young people, minorities, etc. Besides that they killed communists, atheists are blackmailable because those are illegal, gay people are blackmailable, etc.
China ain't selling, they have to make it themselves
China will definitely sell if you offer a high enough price and sign strategic military alliances. They sold to Pakistan already. Iran hasn't even really tried, they keep hedging and trying to play both sides instead of committing. They need to burn the bridges to the west permanently and discipline the comprador elements of their society.
They need to do what Russia did. No more western business, no more talk of sanctions relief, fully commit to China.
No they won't, they didn't sell grain to north Korea for a while there, they are libs, they obey sanctions, as much as Russia. They had pledged huge investments in Iran, but once the nuclear deal went away so did they, even fucking India stayed more. The fucking Chinese banks sometimes even obey the sanctions on Russia, they are not going to sell shit.
But yes I agree the Iranians need a purge.
You won't find disagreement from me here about the liberalism problem in China. This shit is so infuriating.
Iranian Reformists
Chinese liberals
“Surely the West will respect us this time. Hundredth time’s the charm!”
No country pours military equipment into another country without the prospect of strong influence and alliance and without having a strategic reason to. Not even the ussr did in most cases. China didnt sell NK military shit because NK didnt want to. NK didnt want to because they have nukes and are extremely warry of increased chinese influence and have been since the mao years. They have a standing mutual defense pact with China already since the korean war. They have nukes. They get military shit from russia because Russia needed the cooperation and approached them. Also while yes China followed a lot of the sanctions for NK they dont that much in the last couple of years. And Iran had enough of a window where there were no weapons related sanctions against them for china to follow and not sell them previous generation shit. And it is proven that in aspects that really matter and that iran really needs like missilie components or oil sales China doesnt give much of a shit for iranian sanctions now
Why wouldnt they, in fact they should give them to Iran to at least have their systems battle tested against US weapons, they are fucking dumb if they don't themselves beg Iran to take them and use them.
Got to respect sanctions. Same reason they helped starve nk in the 90s, same reason they pulled their investments from Iran.