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This stat confused me, so I read that that's the odds of it happening within a human lifetime.
That's the odds OP asked for, so I phrased it that way. Sorry it is a little confusing.
Oh, good point. Don't mind me! By the time I read through the article I had already forgotten the point of original post.
Interesting that they're so low. Seems like we'd get a major earthquake before an eruption with those kinds of stats
I mean, keep in mind that these volcanos can and do periodically errupt on a much more minor scale, many of these signs are much more likely to point to that. They're still active, but the vast majority of activity is going to be minor rather than lead to a supervolcano scale eruption.
Actually earthquakes are often precursors to volcanic activity since they can indicate magma movement, but the monitoring systems for supervolcanoes like Yellowstone are incredibily sophisticated now - they can detect ground deformation of less than a centimeter using GPS and satelite data, which gives us years or even decades of warning before a potential catastophic eruption.