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Are there commercial enterprises outside China adopting RISC-V?
Seems to me that’s when we see the tipping point.
Depends on whether Chinese chipmakers open source their firmware and designs, as the standard is intended to make possible. And if we get more fab-manufacturing than just ASML.
China could invite entire countries into the Chinese ecosystem - fab-manufacturing, chip designs and firmware, chipset standards, manufactured products from the whole array. The economic ecosystem can be introduced, managed, and deployed quickly, end to end, local production to international distribution.
But instead, I suspect China will just be making fabs on other countries' dirt that are staffed almost exclusively with Chinese labor, bolstering Chinese profits. Its their pattern, and when their diplomatic competition at this scale is the bomb-happy US and Russia, maybe India? China doesn't need to offer much to be the unquestionable "good guy" in the room.
We could all be doing so much better than this.