cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/53090155
And Putin seems to be the last person not to know it.
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In recent weeks, the Russian “land bridge” to Crimea—including the 300-mile-long “Novorossiya” highway—has become what observers have called a “deathtrap” for trucks carrying essential deliveries. In May alone, 125 trucks have been incinerated, mostly with cutting-edge drones like the artificial intelligence-assisted Hornet. (In addition to striking at vehicles, the drones have also been mining the highway from the air.) While traffic still goes through, the Ukrainians are likely hoping that the “highway to hell” becomes dangerous enough that truckers will refuse to undertake such transport. The effect is not only to impose a partial blockade on Crimea itself, causing severe shortages of gasoline and other essential goods on the occupied peninsula (and threatening to kill the upcoming tourist season); it is also to choke off a vital supply route for Russian troops in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has announced a “‘logistics lockdown’ for the Russian army.”
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Drone warfare also includes regular and devastating strikes at oil refineries and other military-related infrastructure, often deep inside Russia—what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has wryly called “long-range sanctions” against Russia’s energy sector.
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Expatriate Russian political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov, an honorary professor at University College London, noted in a YouTube interview that since late 2024, the Russian army had been very advancing very slowly and at tremendous human cost, but still gaining ground—“perhaps three feet a day, but steadily and along nearly the entire line of contact.” For the last three months or so, this has not been the case. Russian troops are still attacking, but generally failing to make any gains, and the Ukrainian counteroffensive is succeeding in recapturing more territory. Virtually everyone now acknowledges that the Russian ground offensive in Ukraine is stalled.
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A notable exception, of course, is Putin, who asserted only last week that “this situation” (a delicate euphemism for the war) is “nearing its conclusion” and then explained that his claim was based on “an analysis of what is happening on the battlefield”: “Our troops are advancing in every direction. Everyone can see it, every blessed day.”
Even many of Russia’s hawkish “milbloggers” reacted with extreme skepticism.
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As the German Kiel Institute of the World Economy writes, drones move to the center of military aid.
In real terms, confirmed bilateral military aid allocated to drones grew from EUR 400 million in 2022 to EUR 1 billion in 2024 and EUR 1.2 billion in 2025, before surging to approximately EUR 1.6 billion in the first four months of 2026 alone. These figures include only provisions that can be clearly attributed to European donors. The actual volume is therefore likely even higher.
Major donors such as Germany and the Netherlands are increasingly allocating drones jointly with Ukrainian defense firms, strengthening Ukraine while also fostering innovation in Europe.
“European donors are now entering drone financing and production on a large scale,” says [the Kiel Institute's head of the Ukraine Support Tracker Christoph] Trebesch. “As a result, support for Ukraine is increasingly becoming a two-way exchange: financial aid flows to Ukraine, while technological spillovers flow back to Europe.”
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[Edit typo.]
And the military industrial complex