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Nah, Israel has the usuable blackmail, not just epstein stuff either to be sure. Invading Iran was never feasible, it would seriously take a million troops even for a half assed iraq style invasion, and Iran has mountains, and is 5x the size.
Israel doesn't actually care about Iran, they are a foil for their politicians. They know they've been lying about them for decades, and while they do want to hurt them, that is not their reason, forever war for domestic political purposes is.
This will not end, even when it seems like it ended, it will keep on, this is forever war, and Israel is going to turn lenanon into a series of ghettos.
Israel do care about Iran. It want is fully destroyed. It thought arming some protesters and factions like the kurd would have created an civil war
No, they didn't. They have betrayed the kurds a number of times, and knew they wouldn't trust them, rightly so.
You are confusing what the Israelis say they are doing with what they are actually doing.
Israeli media itself admit that the plan existed. The idf said it has small chance of succeed but leaders ignore warnings all the time. Netanyahu still wanted to do it. There is no PR benefits to admit a failure of a plan
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-israeli-plan-for-kurdish-invasion-of-iran-reportedly-collapsed-amid-leaks-distrust/
You're correct, but I think what you're missing is that this has nothing to do with the political calculus currently taking place in the White House. If they were capable of realistically assessing military threats they wouldn't have been blindsided by Iran's ability to strike at their military bases or by the closure of the strait. Trump truly believes that the power of the US military is infinite. What's holding him back from an invasion isn't a fear of losing, it's a fear of the political cost of being seen to sign up the US to another decades long occupation.
Israel cares very much about Iran, because Iran is still a serious threat to them. They can have their forever war without Iran in the picture, they've got an almost unlimited supply of local adversaries to pick fights with. But Iran is currently by far the most dangerous of those allies to Israel, at least in Israel's estimation.
I was going to take issue with the calculus term you used, but as I believe calculus is measuring the area of probability curves, it might fit. The probability curve of fucking children on tape being released.
That said, Iran is not a real threat to Israel and we all know it. Iran can't do shit to Israel, that has overwhelming advantage. Any suggestion to the contrary is Israel playing their sheep.
To get back to the calculus, it has nothing to do with winning or stopping Iran from whatever. Why anyone would take them at their word at this point is beyond me, not the least on this issue.