Technology
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2030 is definitely ambitious given that it's still a theoretical technology, but oh boy that's a extremely helpful thing if we can actually get one online by then
Especially if China’s the one controlling it. They’ll recognize the incredible benefit to the world and make sure as many people as possible are able to use it (I’m not saying they’re completely altruistic, they’ll also make it profitable and potentially predatory, but it’s still a net good for the world if we can largely stop using fossil fuels by mid century)
Honestly as long as somebody manages to get this working, the technology will get out sooner or later and the world will benefit from it. But yes, the entitity who first gets it right can then show how much they care for all humans or just a few.
They could give it to the world, but it will still be for "power".
If this existed, alot of industries would die overnight, and alot of them are in the west, oil states in the middle east and Russia.
Fossil fuels would be almost redundant, as everything would start to run on electricity. (this will take some time ofc) China is also winning the EV race hard, so they will certinatly benefit big time.
China also invested alot of money and time in the third world, and that will all be new markets for them if this shift happens.
The dark horse in this would be the EU, as they are already shifting towards green power and EVs.
The wind power industry in Europe would be the biggest blow, and then ofc Norway would have alot of oil left. BUT Norway has invested heavily in that transition, so they might come out on the other side pretty great.
Yeah, I’m not under any illusion that it’ll be (literally) sunshine and daisies. The WHO estimates that 250k people will die annually because of climate change between 2030-2050 though, and (I sincerely hope) a shift in global power dynamics from something like this is unlikely to kill that many.
China will also be more focused on preserving stability in general as a global power than Russia or the United States, though this would probably be very bad news for Taiwan, if successful.
I agree that the effects for Europe are less clear. The EU is likely to benefit much more than Russia or the US, but it might lose power in comparison to an energy rich India or Indonesia. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, other places deserve a fair seat at the table, especially given the relative populations.