this post was submitted on 15 Dec 2025
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Image is of Donald Trump, Paul Kagame, and Felix Tshisekedi signing a peace deal in Washington DC on December 4th.


On December 4th, Rwanda's Paul Kagame and the DRC's Felix Tshisekedi signed the Washington Accords for Peace and Prosperity (pictured above). Trump boasted that he was settling a war that had gone on for decades, and remarked, idiosyncratically, "[...] and now they’re going to spend a lot of time hugging, holding hands [...]"

A few days later, the M23 militia (backed by Rwanda) advanced into Uvira, a city near the DRC's eastern border with Burundi and a major commercial and strategic location in the region. Burundi, although a small country, is a significant ally to the DRC and has sent thousands of soldiers to aid them during conflicts; this offensive by M23 aims to cut off a direct route between the two, though they do still share quite a long border over Lake Tanganyika. Tens of thousands of civilians (possibly up to 200,000) fled as M23 approached.

Signed almost simultaneously with the Accords was a Strategic Partnership Agreement between the DRC and the United States, which effectively threw open its critical minerals in the east to American exploitation. These minerals include tin, tungsten, and tantalum, which is vital for many industries. The irony is that M23 has been taking territory in the eastern DRC in order to transport these very minerals to Rwanda and onwards to global supply chains. Signing the Accord was, therefore, a remarkably pointless endeavour for everybody involved. Burundi and the DRC have complained, calling for sanctions on Rwanda, and appeasing to Trump's pride, calling this a "slap in the face to the United States", though I doubt the US is ultimately all that bothered about it one way or another.


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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
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Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
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Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 26 points 5 days ago (2 children)

And the calculus of the US is: when they don't get it back and when they do it again Chinese buyers will stop buying Venezuelan oil as too risky at which point the money to Venezuela dries up, that leads to cuts to services, leading to unrest, leading to opportunity for coups, fomenting images of unrest to use as a pretext to invasion in western media, or at the very least securing control of global oil resources even further in the hands of the US via its gulf proxies.

China doesn't have a deep water navy to stop them and probably is disinclined against picking a fight with the US at this point and that far away from home anyways. Russia isn't going to stop them and probably couldn't afford to divert its resources right now with a push for Ukraine around the corner even if they were so inclined.

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 23 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago)

A lot of that's true, and the US is certainly betting on China doing nothing, and China's ability to directly assist Venezuela is quite limited. But China may choose to escalate within it's own "sphere of influence", around Japan or Taiwan. Last time around there was a joint Russian - Chinese bomber patrol with stimulated missile launches around Japan, and a Chinese aircraft carrier was involved, in response to US bomber runs around Venezuela. The US responded with their own US-Japan joint bomber patrol where they practiced sinking ships at long ranges (in other words, the Chinese Navy) off of the coast of Alaska and then flying around Japan (it was called Operation Tundra Merlin).

I don't think China will react much, but this is still significant. A big financial loss for China, Venezuela, or an intermediary. And whoever was the guarantor/insurance behind this is going to be in big trouble.

[–] TreadOnMe@hexbear.net 12 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago)

Chinese buyers will just have to purchase through Chevron. I don't want to keep banging the drum here, but Chevron is still unsanctioned. The goal of the operation atm isn't necessarily to actually fight with Venezuela, it is to funnel any and all oil revenue that Venezuela does make through a U.S. company. You just have to wonder ATM if the operational costs are anywhere close to the money they are making from it. I have to assume they are not.

They are trying to shear the sheep.